Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Reset Holds Steady at $110,000, Sprinting Towards $150,000 Is Imminent

The Federal Reserve (FED) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and halt quantitative tightening on December 1. Bitcoin's price briefly fell to $109,200, down 6% from recent highs. However, Bitcoin price forecasts indicate that the technicals are undergoing a healthy reset, with the funding rate turning positive since October 22. The continuous increase in open interest suggests that short positions are actively shorting, a pattern that typically signals a short squeeze and significant pump.

The Federal Reserve (FED) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, failing to drive BTC to break through

(Source: Trading View)

The Federal Reserve (FED) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and halt quantitative tightening on December 1, resulting in unusual price movements for Bitcoin. After the announcement, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell to $109,200, a drop of 6% from recent highs. Although all analysts unanimously believe that the expectations of interest rate cuts have been priced in by the market, this decline in Bitcoin price forecasts remains surprising.

The Federal Reserve's current dot plot shows that there will be three rate cuts in 2025. Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that there will be at least two more 25 basis point cuts by June 2026, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to between 3% and 3.25%. However, traders seem to be looking beyond monetary policy, now focusing more on adverse macroeconomic factors, including the rising unemployment rate, President Trump's ongoing tariff negotiations with China, and concerns about a potential asset bubble in the artificial intelligence industry.

The cryptocurrency analysis company Hyblock stated that after the recent Federal Reserve (FED) Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Bitcoin prices tend to experience a short-term fall, followed by a rebound. This indicates that the current downtrend could be a good buying opportunity for strategic investors. Historical data shows that the average rebound time for Bitcoin after an FOMC meeting is between 7 to 14 days, and if this pattern repeats, BTC could retest the $120,000 level before mid-December.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference that a further interest rate cut at the December meeting is “far from certain,” which dampened market expectations for continued easing. However, from the perspective of Bitcoin price forecasting, a pause in interest rate cuts is not necessarily bearish. Stopping quantitative tightening means that the Federal Reserve will no longer withdraw liquidity from the market, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts still exists, providing medium-term support for risk assets. The key lies in whether the market can rely on its own fundamentals to maintain prices in the short term without further interest rate cuts.

Technical Reset in Derivatives Market Suggests a Big Rise

The most striking aspect of the recent price trend of Bitcoin may be the major reset in the futures market. Analyst Luka stated that although the price of Bitcoin has fallen, the funding rate first declined and then rebounded, which means that all excessively leveraged positions have been liquidated. During this period, the open interest has continued to rise, which is crucial because it indicates that short positions are actively shorting, rather than longs being forcibly liquidated. This pattern typically suggests that prices will rise significantly, as excessive short positions can easily lead to a short squeeze.

Another expert, Daan Crypto Trades, reported that the funding rate has dropped to its lowest level since July. This is a significant decline compared to the Bitcoin prices in August and September. CryptosRus pointed out that the funding rate turned positive from negative on October 22, which is similar to the situation before the significant price increases in June and September. Analysts stated that when the funding rate rises while prices remain unchanged, it usually signals a “calm period before the next big market movement.”

Bullish Signals in the Derivatives Market:

Interest Rate Turns Positive: Transitioning from negative to positive values, indicating that bulls are willing to pay holding costs, showing increased confidence.

Open Interest Rises: New short positions are being opened instead of long positions being forced to close, creating conditions for a short squeeze.

Leverage Cleanout Completed: Excessively leveraged long positions have been liquidated, improving market health.

Historical Pattern Repeats: The current financing Intrerest Rate level is similar to that before the significant rises in June and September.

From a technical analysis perspective, this reset of the derivatives market is an extremely healthy signal. When the market clears excessive leverage and speculative positions, the resistance to price increases will significantly decrease. The current existence of a large number of short positions means that once the price starts to rise and triggers short stop-losses, a chain reaction will form, pushing the price to accelerate upwards. This kind of short squeeze has occurred multiple times in Bitcoin's history, each time accompanied by dramatic price surges.

The changes in financing interest rates are particularly noteworthy. When the financing interest rate is negative, it means that short positions need to pay for the costs of long positions, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market. However, when the financing interest rate turns positive and continues to rise, it suggests that long positions are willing to pay costs to maintain their positions, and this shift in confidence often precedes a price breakout. Currently, although the financing interest rate has turned from negative to positive, it is still at a relatively low level, indicating that the market is not yet overheated and there is still plenty of room for upward movement.

Michael Saylor predicts a target of $150,000

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), believes that despite the recent volatility in Bitcoin prices, the company remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. At the Money 20/20 conference, Saylor stated that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin will reach $150,000, and clearer regulations are one of the main reasons.

Saylor stated that the support from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for tokenized securities, Treasury Secretary Scott P. Bensen's support for stablecoins to maintain the strength of the dollar, and the overall shift in U.S. regulatory policy are all key factors supporting his prediction. He noted that the past twelve months “may have been the best twelve months in the industry's history.” This optimistic assessment is based on several specific developments: the SEC dropped investigations into multiple crypto companies, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs successfully launched and attracted tens of billions of dollars in funding, and the Trump administration's full support for the crypto industry.

From the current approximately $110,000 to $150,000, the Bitcoin price forecast suggests an increase of about 36%. This target is not uncommon in historical bull market cycles, especially considering the current pace of institutional adoption and improvements in the regulatory environment. Strategy itself holds over 500,000 Bitcoins, and its continuous accumulation strategy provides stable buying support for the market. If more listed companies follow Strategy's approach, the demand for Bitcoin from corporate treasuries could drive the price far beyond $150,000.

The progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations becomes a key catalyst

The easing of tensions in US-China trade could be another reason for the market's rise. After President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to a historic market crash in October, both countries have softened their rhetoric and committed to dialogue. Trump stated that he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Seoul. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that both sides have reached a “substantial” framework for a trade agreement.

Investor Anthony Pompliano stated that if the trade agreement is officially announced, along with further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED), it could lead to a significant rise in the market. He said, “This week, asset prices will experience crazy volatility.” This expectation is not unfounded, as the easing of the trade war will eliminate one of the biggest uncertainties in the global economy. When businesses and investors have a clearer expectation of the future trade environment, investment confidence will significantly recover, and risk assets will benefit first.

The impact of China-US trade negotiations on Bitcoin price forecasts is dual. In the short term, progress in the negotiations will improve market sentiment, pushing funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets. In the long term, stable China-US relations will provide a more predictable environment for the global economy, which is beneficial for Bitcoin's status as a global value storage tool. Furthermore, if China and the US reach some form of cooperation or mutual recognition framework in the field of digital currencies and blockchain, it will clear significant obstacles for the globalization of the cryptocurrency industry.