XRP News: Fed's hawkish comments combined with the disappointment of expectations from the Xi-Biden meeting have dampened market sentiment, while hopes for the ETF restart.

XRP price continues to fall, impacted by the dual blows of the Fed's hawkish stance and disappointing results from the Trump-Xi meeting. Fed Chairman Powell reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in December on Wednesday, October 29, putting pressure on risk assets. Subsequently, on Thursday, October 30, the Xi-Trump meeting failed to result in tariff reductions, further dampening market sentiment, and XRP briefly fell to an intraday low of $2.3781. However, Canary Funds submitted a revised S-1 filing for the XRP Spot ETF, marking a hopeful automatic effectiveness on November 13, reigniting hope for investors.

Dual Impact of Macroeconomic Policies: Uncertainty of the Fed and China-US Trade

As the crypto market is digesting Fed Chairman Powell's relatively hawkish speech, the talks between Trump and Xi Jinping have taken the spotlight, causing a heavy blow to XRP and the broader crypto market.

• Fed's interest rate cut expectations fall short: Fed Chairman Powell clearly dropped the possibility of a December rate cut, and this “less dovish” stance has had a negative impact on risk asset sentiment.
• US-China trade negotiations fall short of expectations: The talks, originally expected to last four hours, ultimately lasted less than two hours, disappointing investors. The discussions failed to reach significant concessions on dropping US tariffs on Chinese goods.
• High Tariff Rates: Although U.S. President Trump reduced the tariff on fentanyl-related products from 20% to 10%, the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. has surged from 3% to 47% since he took office. Analysts point out that this trade truce highlights the unresolved core differences between the economies of China and the U.S.
• Sensitivity of XRP to Trade News: XRP is particularly sensitive to trade news between China and the United States. On October 10, when Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, XRP experienced a flash crash, falling to a low of 0.7773 USD.

ETF Restart Hope: Canary Funds Aiming for Automatic Effect on November 13

Despite the macro adverse factors dominating the market, the progress of the XRP Spot ETF is considered a potential strong bullish catalyst.

• S-1 Amendment Submission: Canary Funds submitted the S-1 amendment form for the XRP Spot ETF on Thursday, October 30, removing the “delay amendment” clause that prevents the registration from becoming effective automatically.
• Automatic Activation Mechanism: This action sets a potential launch date of November 13 for the Canary XRP ETF, provided that Nasdaq approves the 8-A filing.
• SEC inclination: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is reportedly in favor of allowing companies to utilize the statutory 20-day waiting period for automatic effectiveness, which may encourage more XRP Spot ETFs issuers to make S-1 amendments, following the earlier launches of SOL, HBAR, and LTC ETFs by Bitwise and Canary.
• Market Potential: Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, is optimistic about the demand for the XRP Spot ETF, predicting that inflows could exceed 5 billion dollars, and it is expected to become one of the top 20 ETFs in history.

Technical Outlook and Key Catalysts: Focus on the $2.5 Level

(Source: TradingView)

After experiencing four consecutive falls, XRP is still trading below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), signaling a bearish bias. However, a series of upcoming events may trigger a reversal of the bearish trend.

• Bearish Scenario: If BlackRock downplays the XRP Spot ETF plan, the U.S. government continues to be shut down, the Senate opposes crypto-friendly legislation, or Ripple's U.S. charter banking license is delayed/denied, XRP could fall to $2.35 and expose the support level of $2.2.
• Bullish Scenario: If the U.S. Senate deadlock ends, BlackRock submits the XRP Trust S-1 filing, Ripple obtains a banking license, or progress is made on the Market Structure Act, it could drive XRP to break through $2.4, subsequently challenge $2.62, and ultimately eye the psychological level of $3.0, or even the historical high of $3.66.
• Current Operation Suggestion: XRP is trading within a narrow range as key events approach. Investors should closely monitor the developments related to OCC, Senate, and SEC. Maintaining the lower boundary is a prerequisite for XRP to regain its 3.0 USD target.

Conclusion

Despite recent macro headwinds suppressing XRP, the potential launch of the XRP Spot ETF through the automatic activation mechanism has brought strong structural support to the market. The short-term trend of XRP will heavily rely on legislative and regulatory decisions from Washington. The launch of the XRP Spot ETF and the progress of the market structure bill are expected to be key tailwinds triggering a rebound in XRP prices.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.