Gate News bot reports that European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the ECB has learned lessons from its aggressive money-printing policies and will focus more on the side effects of loose monetary policy in the future. After curbing high inflation, the ECB is re-evaluating its long-term strategy and policy toolkit, including large-scale bond purchases and negative interest rate policies implemented over the past decade due to low inflation. Its €5 trillion ($5.8 trillion) money-printing operation, known in the market as "quantitative easing/QE," has been criticized for fostering real estate and financial market bubbles, leading to significant losses for the ECB after raising interest rates.

Gate News bot message, due to U.S. President Trump planning to unilaterally impose tariffs before the July 9 deadline, industry KOL Arthur Hayes expects significant fluctuations in the crypto assets market in the future. Despite breakthroughs in the China-U.S. trade agreement, the market still faced some dumping pressure in the past 24 hours. Additionally, the lower-than-expected U.S. consumer price index data failed to act as a catalyst, unable to push Bitcoin prices above the resistance level of $110,000. Over the past two months, global macro uncertainty and Trump's tariff war have impacted the trends of crypto assets and other risk assets. Previously, Hayes stated that it was time for the Federal Reserve to shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE). However, recent U.S. consumer price index data shows that inflation concerns still exist, and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have further declined.

On April 14, the CEO of Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company, said that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises above the 5% mark, the Federal Reserve will intervene in the U.S. Treasury market and may launch a comprehensive bond purchase program later this year. Vincent Mortier said he was surprised by how quickly longer-dated Treasury yields surged during the recent sell-off. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose nearly 25 basis points this month to around 4.5%, a level Mortier described as "painful but manageable" for the U.S. government. He expects the Fed to enter the market to buy 10-year Treasuries at the 5% level, and for 30-year Treasuries, he expects the Fed to act once the yield exceeds 5.25%, which is about 40 basis points above current levels.

Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives passed the budget proposal put forward by Trump, prompting a warning from economist Peter Schiff. The budget increases the debt ceiling, raises fiscal spending and deficits, which could lead to higher inflation, fiscal risks, and even unlimited quantitative easing policies. The proposal was approved, planning to cut taxes by $5.3 trillion over the next decade and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

Jin10 data April 9th, Deutsche Bank stated that if the volatility pushing the long-term borrowing costs in the U.S. above 5% continues, The Federal Reserve (FED) will need to intervene to stabilize the U.S. Treasury market. On Wednesday, concerns over the asset security of the U.S. escalated due to Trump's tariff war, exacerbating the dumping of U.S. Treasuries, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.02%, the highest level since November 2023. If this situation continues, the FED will need to intervene, which the bank's global head of forex strategy, George Saravelos, referred to as a "circuit breaker"—an emergency quantitative easing. He wrote: "If the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market continues, we believe the FED will have no choice but to urgently purchase U.S. Treasuries to stabilize the bond market."

According to a report by Golden Finance, Arthur Hayes stated in a post on the X platform that he is optimistic about Bitcoin rising to $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500. His reasoning is that the Federal Reserve is shifting from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for U.S. Treasuries, and inflation is viewed as "transitory," with limited impact from tariffs. He mentioned that he will elaborate on his views in the next article and is currently providing a "TikTok brain capacity version" summary.

On November 29th, Jin10 Data reported that according to CITIC Securities research, as the Federal Reserve heavily uses the reverse repurchase agreement tool (RRP), QE and QT begin to form close connections with the collateral market, affecting the term spread of US Treasury bonds. We believe that the significant increase in RRP that began in 2021 has pushed down the term spread and led to negative spreads. After RRP shrinks after 2023, it will narrow the inverted term spread and expand credit in the non-bank sector. We expect that the QT policy will reach a turning point by late next year, and the combination with the interest rate reduction policy will widen the term spread of US Treasury bonds, while the long-term central tendency of US Treasury bond interest rates may be difficult to decline.

Japan's Central Bank plans to reduce its bond purchases, seen as the first step in "quantitative tightening." Oxford Economics believes that monthly Japan government bond purchases are expected to be reduced by 0.5 trillion yen per quarter to avoid a sharp rise in yields, and further accelerating the pace of reducing purchases could increase the risk of market chaos. Japan's Central Bank's share of outstanding Japan government bonds will fall to 41%. Japan's Central Bank is expected to show its goal of exiting QE in the form of a balance sheet after making some progress in reducing purchases of Japan government bonds.

According to Xinhua Finance, in the past month, the topic of the Central Bank's purchase of government bonds has attracted much market attention, and the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have also made the latest statements on this. long wick candle view that "China's Central Bank purchase of treasury bonds means that the 'quantitative easing' (QE) operation is about to begin", people in the industry generally believe that China's Central Bank bond purchase is not equivalent to QE, and it is fundamentally different from the coin of fiscal deficits.

Jagjit Chadha, director of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), said the impact of quantitative easing on the UK should be assessed to see "whether other policies could achieve the same or better results at a lower cost". In 2021, the Bank of England will publish a review of quantitative easing up to 2016, but NIESR wants to go further with a more comprehensive investigation. At current market prices, NIESR estimates QE will cost taxpayers £120bn over its full cycle, enough to fund the UK's defense budget for two years. Chadha added that the policy could have other damaging effects by "distorting wealth holdings and sustaining zombie firms". “It would be very timely to examine the role of quantitative easing in monetary policy in the light of international experience. The benefits of these programs must be estimated, taking into account the costs to public finances.”

The CICC research report believes that a series of recent data shows that the U.S. economy is resilient, which increases the probability of a soft landing, but it is not yet enough to make it a baseline scenario. We believe that under the dual pressure of the fastest monetary tightening in the past 40 years and the long-term supply constraints, the risk of "stagflation" atypical recession in the US economy still exists, and it will take a certain period of time to materialize, prompting attention to the possible rapid reversal in the future risk. For controlling inflation, raising interest rates is more effective than reducing balance sheets; while for stabilizing finance, QE is more effective than cutting interest rates. In the past year, when the Federal Reserve, as the "market maker of last resort", no longer provided liquidity guarantee for U.S. bonds, the foundation of the financial system was unstable, leading to frequent global financial risk events. When systemic financial risks are approaching, it is not ruled out that the Fed will restart QE (to "extinguish the fire" of systemic financial risks) while maintaining high interest rates (controlling inflation).