#数字货币市场回调# In recent days, the US stock market has shown a three-day fall trend, and this downward trend has also affected the sentiment in the digital money market. Although the decline is relatively moderate, the underlying reasons have caused considerable concern among investors.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on the stock market being overvalued on Tuesday immediately triggered market volatility; the new home sales data released on Wednesday exceeded expectations, which should have been a positive signal, but failed to boost market confidence; on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level of the year, instead becoming a catalyst for the market to continue weakening.

The current market has turned into a peculiar logic of "good news is bad news." Strong economic indicators are actually unfavorable for the stock market, as this means the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to implement interest rate cuts.

The PCE data to be released tonight at 20:30 will become the focus of market attention. Compared to the CPI, the PCE is seen as a more comprehensive indicator reflecting consumption trends. Market interpretation will determine subsequent trends: if attention is focused on the downward trend of the month-on-month data (from 0.3% to 0.2%), market pressure is expected to ease; but if the focus is on the year-on-year data still far above the target of 2.9%, the market may come under further pressure, and expectations for interest rate cuts will continue to cool.

It is worth noting that the probability of not lowering interest rates in October has risen from 10% to 15%. Although this number is small, once a trend is formed and expands, it could quickly rise to 50% or 60%, which would bring greater downward pressure to the market.

However, excessive panic is unnecessary. The previous market surge was primarily based on optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts, and the current correction is actually a natural process of the market's rational return.

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