Institution: The overall and core CPI year-on-year in the US for September may be close to 3%, and the direction of inflation changes may raise concerns for the Fed.

On October 23, Jin10 reported that Dean Baker, chief economist at the UK research institute CEPR, stated that the US September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to that of August. The energy component rose by 0.7% in August, and September may also show rapid growth. The household food component rose by 0.6% in August, and the growth in September may slow down. The core CPI month-on-month rate for September is likely to reach 0.3% again, which may round up to 0.4%. In addition, both the overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are likely to be close to 3.0%, a full percentage point above the Fed's 2.0% target. For the Fed, the level of inflation may be less concerning than the direction of change. At least until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers, inflation is more likely to rise rather than fall. If new tariffs are implemented and the expulsion affects more industries, the situation will become more complicated. Unless there is a significant economic recession, it is hard to imagine a scenario where inflation reaches the Fed's target in the short term.