Analysis: The current price of Bitcoin "almost has no bubble", with nearly 40% of chips in unrealized losses.

On November 6, analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin has recently approached its fair value—$98,000—during the recent decline. The fair price of Bitcoin is calculated based on the historical average of mvrv. If the market's valuation level (mvrv) is at historical average levels, then the price of BTC should be around this level, thus the fair price is considered a “mean reversion center.” The current price has almost no bubble compared to the average cost of all active chips. If the market remains rational, there should be value discovery and buying pressure to get on board. If it continues to fall below, it indicates that the market has entered an irrational stage (Oversold), or there is a collapse in confidence, then it would ignore value reversion and lean more towards active risk aversion. The current BTC profit supply ratio (PSIP) is 72%, already falling into the extreme range of a bull run pullback (70%-75%). If we exclude Satoshi Nakamoto and lost BTC, this ratio would be even lower, indicating that at least nearly 40% of the chips are in unrealized losses. It has also been observed that the proportion of long-term holders in loss has surged, which is also a signal that the pullback has entered a relatively bottomed range. The analyst believes that if the recent decline is not the extreme of a bull run pullback, it is the beginning of a cycle turning bearish. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.