Why Is the SPY ETF Up Today, 3/31/2026?

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) jumped 2.9% today, March 31, driven by optimism over a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict and easing rate hike fears.

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Importantly, SPY closely tracks the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which gained 2.91% in the regular trading session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) rose 3.43%.

Fund Flows and Sentiment

SPY’s five-day net outflows totaled $1 billion, showing that investors pulled capital from the ETF over the past five trading days. Meanwhile, its three-month average trading volume is 87.88 million shares.

It must be noted that the retail sentiment for the SPY ETF is neutral, while the hedge fund managers have increased their holdings of the ETF in the last quarter.

SPY’s Price Forecast

According to TipRanks’ unique ETF analyst consensus, which is based on a weighted average of analyst ratings on its holdings, SPY has a Moderate Buy rating. The Street’s average price target of $832.36 for the SPY ETF implies an upside potential of 27.99%.

Currently, SPY’s five holdings with the highest upside potential are:

• Loews (L)

• Fair Isaac (FICO)

• Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

• ServiceNow (NOW)

• AppLovin (APP)

Meanwhile, its five holdings with the greatest downside potential are:

• Moderna (MRNA)

• APA Corp. (APA)

• CF Industries (CF)

• Valero Energy (VLO)

• LyondellBasell (LYB)

Revealingly, SPY ETF’s Smart Score is seven, implying that this ETF is likely to perform in line with the broader market over the long term.

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