The market has never lacked opportunities; what’s missing is the discipline to stay clear-headed amid volatility. Thursday’s trading session gave us a vivid lesson in oscillation — early on, Bitcoin faced resistance around 104,210, and after that, the trend became quite clear. The entire day saw a gradual decline within a range, with prices drifting lower throughout the day and plunging to a low of 100,238 late at night. ETH’s performance was similar, sliding from 3,455 down to 3,245 — overall weak but with a clear rhythm. Today’s trading was fairly well-timed; although I only identified the main trend, I managed to profit from both sides — switching between longs and shorts to capture a 3,899-point profit margin, and a few trades netted me 220 points. The evening short position with the trend was also a natural move.
Looking at the current market, the 4-hour chart just closed with a relatively large bearish candle. Although the price has temporarily bounced up from the lows, pay attention to the Bollinger Bands — they are continuously narrowing and pressing downward. What does this indicate? The bulls have little room to operate, and the dominance still lies with the bears. Switching to the 1-hour chart makes this even clearer — a classic stair-step decline: each rebound peaks lower than the previous one, and each dip reaches new lows. The bears are firmly in control.
That said, after such a significant drop, a breather and some recovery are inevitable. I expect a technical rebound in the near term — mainly to relieve oversold conditions. Once that relief is exhausted, the downward trend is likely to resume. So, strategy-wise, during the early hours, we should focus on short positions at higher levels, waiting for rebounds to present good entry points at resistance levels.
Friday early morning trading plan:
- Bitcoin: Consider light short positions between 102,000 and 102,500, targeting around 99,500.
- Ethereum: Short positions can be considered in the 3,330–3,370 range, with a target near 3,200.
Remember, a rebound is not a reversal — riding the trend remains the key.