El precio de BTC cayó bruscamente un 25% esta semana, afectado por las operaciones en contra de la tendencia de los traders. Durante la sesión asiática, BTC alcanzó su nivel más bajo en casi dos meses, y otras criptomonedas como Ethereum, Solana y XRP también sufrieron fuertes caídas. Las preocupaciones sobre las políticas de Trump y las perspectivas económicas han llevado a una disminución de la aversión al riesgo por parte de los inversores, lo que ha generado cambios y presiones en el mercado de criptomonedas.

Jinshi Data News on January 21, according to foreign media analysis reports, the yen once fell sharply against the US dollar by more than 100 points during the Asian session. Trump's tariff remarks triggered a significant rebound in the US dollar, which was a key factor in the yen's decline. However, the change in global risk sentiment provided some support for the safe-haven yen. In addition, the Bank of Japan's firm expectations of an interest rate hike at the monetary policy meeting later this week also helped to limit any significant depreciation of the yen. At the same time, the continuous rise in bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has caused a recent decline in US Treasury yields. This has led to a narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential, hindering traders from making aggressive bearish bets on the yen and limiting the positive trend of the US dollar against the yen during the session.

Según los datos de Jinshi del 6 de enero, Goldman Sachs indicó que no se espera que el precio del oro alcance los 3000 dólares por onza a finales de este año, y retrasará esta predicción hasta mediados de 2026, ya que el mercado espera que la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. reduzca la magnitud de los recortes de tasas. Los analistas de Goldman Sachs, Lena Thomas y Dan Struven, prevén que el precio del oro tocará los 2910 dólares por onza a fin de año. El impulso generado por la disminución de la incertidumbre después de las elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU. en diciembre del año pasado resultó en una liquidez más débil de los fondos de ETF de lo esperado, lo que también llevó a un punto de partida de precios más bajo para el nuevo año. Los analistas señalan: "La disminución de la demanda especulativa y el aumento de las compras de oro por parte de los Bancos Centrales han contrarrestado efectivamente estas dos fuerzas opuestas, manteniendo el precio del oro en un rango fluctuante en los últimos meses. La compra de oro por parte de los Bancos Centrales seguirá siendo un factor clave en el largo plazo para el precio del oro. Mirando hacia el futuro, estimamos que la cantidad mensual promedio de compras llegará a 38 toneladas para mediados de 2026."

Odaily Planet Daily News Polymarket predicts that the probability of President Trump approving the strategic BTC reserve within the first 100 days of his tenure has fallen to 27%, lower than the 60% peak after Trump's election. Currently, the amount of bets on this event has exceeded $1.5 million. Mientras tanto, otros mercados de predicción esperan que Trump finalmente acepte BTC como reserva estratégica, uniéndose al petróleo y al oro. Por ejemplo, Kalshi predice que la probabilidad de una reserva de BTC en enero de 2026 ha alcanzado el 61%, el punto más alto desde el 21 de diciembre, y actualmente ha retrocedido al 57%. Además, se espera que los usuarios de Polymarket y Kalshi necesiten más tiempo para el proyecto de ley estratégica de reserva de BTC en Texas. Polymarket predice que Texas tendrá en el próximo año 3

Odaily Daily Planet News The US PCE and Core PCE data are all lower than expected. Traders continue to bet that the Fed will pause rate cuts in January and increase bets that the Fed will cut rates in March. Expected 10

Odaily Daily News As the results of the US presidential election are gradually released in the evening, traders have reduced their bets on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year. Traders in the interest rate futures market continue to bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week and in December, but now expect the Fed to stop cutting interest rates after two 25 basis point cuts in the first half of 2025, with the federal funds interest rate target range falling to

QCP Capital recently stated that as the US presidential election approaches, market anxiety continues to rise. Investors are increasing their bets on the 'Trump trade', but election results may bring about significant fluctuations. In addition, the results of the congressional elections are equally important, as future fiscal deficits will affect the stance of the Federal Reserve, which is unfavorable for risk assets. BTC is seen as part of the 'Trump trade' and is expected to experience significant fluctuations after the election results are announced.

Standard Chartered Bank said that 60% of the strength of the US dollar is related to the increase in bets on Trump winning the November 5th election. The US dollar index has risen by more than 3% this month. Trump's victory in the presidential election will boost the US dollar, while market fluctuations often favor safe-haven assets. If Trump is elected, the market expects a divided Congress, which could lead to profit-taking.

Odaily Daily News According to Polymarket, the amount of bets on who will win the 2024 presidential election, Harris or Trump, has exceeded 2 billion dollars. Historical information shows that this number reached 1 billion dollars on September 24, and increased by 'another' 10 billion dollars in just 24 days.

Golden Finance reported that the euro rose to its highest level in a year, and traders' bullishness on the euro reached the highest level since the end of 2020 before the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The euro rose to a high of 1.1143 on Wednesday, the highest level since July 2023. The market expects Fed Chair Powell to support their bets on rate cuts on Friday, and it is expected that the speed of rate cuts by the Fed in the coming months will exceed that of the European Central Bank.

Odaily Planet Daily News According to concerns about a recession in the US economy, market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds continued to fall during the Asian session, falling to 4.11%, the lowest level since May 2023. As of the time of writing, futures prices imply a market expectation of an 87BP rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, with a remaining bet of 13BP for 4 rate cuts this year. The Federal Reserve has three more meetings this year to consider rate cuts, and the probability of a 50BP rate cut in September has risen to 33%. (Jinshi)

Golden Finance reported that the futures market continues to price in bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts starting in September, with expectations of rate cuts at every meeting for the rest of 2024.

Golden Finance reported that after Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate, the winning probability of the last round on Polygon prediction market has risen to a new high of 72%. In addition, Polymarket's total bets on the US presidential election contract amounted to $262 million, setting a record for the amount of bets on prediction markets based on Criptomoneda (not including all prediction markets).