#比特币突破7.9万美元 #比特币突破7.9万美元 Bitcoin breaks through $79,000 behind dual signals, US and Iran send negotiation signals, should we buy tomorrow or wait for a pullback?

Both bulls and bears are still tugging at the $79,000 level, with the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow, oil prices oscillating at high levels, and institutional hesitation alongside whale greed playing out simultaneously. Since April, Bitcoin has experienced a strong rally from about $67,000 to nearly $80,000, with a monthly increase approaching 15%, marking the best monthly performance in nearly a year. Meanwhile, Ethereum's catch-up rally has finally started, surpassing $2,400 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour increase of over 3.8%, outperforming Bitcoin's same-period performance. However, the market is not uniform—there has been a rare "triple divergence": ETF inflows have continued for 9 days, setting the longest inflow record of the year, yet perpetual contract funding rates remain negative; geopolitical tensions and peace talks are in the air, but oil prices are soaring; bulls are advancing vigorously, while whales are quietly turning away. The tug-of-war around the $79,000 level has lasted several days, and tomorrow's FOMC meeting could be a turning point for the market.
Bitcoin breaks through $79,000 behind dual signals, US and Iran send negotiation signals, should we buy tomorrow or wait for a pullback?
Triple divergence: market tearing under apparent prosperity, but internally there are three key "divergence signals" that require clarity amidst optimism.
🔴 Divergence One: ETF continuous inflows, but funding rates remain negative The US spot Bitcoin ETF is in the longest consecutive inflow phase of 2026. According to SoSoValue data, as of April 24, ETF has achieved nine consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating about $21.2 billion since April 14. Morgan Stanley's MSBT had a total inflow of $184 million by the 26th, with no single-day outflows; with the US and Iran reaching a ceasefire agreement, institutional appetite for Bitcoin as a "risk asset" has reignited. The total net assets of spot ETFs have risen to about $101 billion, accounting for 6.57% of Bitcoin's market cap. However, sentiment in the futures market is completely opposite. The funding rates for BTC and ETH on major CEX and DEX platforms remain in the bearish zone, with only a few platforms touching the 0.0100% benchmark. Short sellers are paying fees to longs to maintain positions, indicating derivatives investors are not convinced by the current prices. This coexistence of institutional buying on the spot side and bearish sentiment on the futures side last occurred during the stage bottom around September 2025.
🔴 Divergence Two: US and Iran send peace signals, crude oil prices rise simultaneously On April 27, WTI crude oil broke through $96/barrel, Brent crude surpassed $101/barrel, both rising over 2% intraday. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market also rose in tandem. This "oil price rise, risk assets also rise" phenomenon is extremely rare—when safe-haven and speculative flows converge in different markets, it indicates that the pricing anchor is shifting from a simple "war vs. peace" dichotomy to a complex game involving multiple factors. The tension in US-Iran relations has reached its peak. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Russia and met with Putin, while Iran also conveyed a three-stage negotiation plan to the US through intermediaries. The first stage focuses on ending the war and obtaining guarantees against future conflict; the second stage addresses the management of the Strait of Hormuz; the third stage involves nuclear discussions. However, Iran's red lines in negotiations differ greatly from US positions—Iran demands new legal frameworks for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation, and the lifting of maritime blockades, which fundamentally conflict with US demands. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has destroyed several US-backed groups in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces, arresting over 150 people. Regardless of statements, the "fighting while talking" pattern between US and Iran remains unchanged, and the market continues to bet on the smooth progress of peace negotiations amid bullish enthusiasm.
🟢 Divergence Three: Bitcoin up 13% monthly, Ethereum's rally begins Since April 26, Bitcoin has risen a total of 10.73% over the past month, with a weekly increase of 6.81%, approaching a 15% gain since the April low of $67,000. ETH/BTC has bottomed out and rebounded, with Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin by about 2 percentage points over the week. This rebound shows a clear three-phase rhythm—early April driven mainly by ETF continuous net inflows, mid-April triggered by news of Iran and US extending ceasefire causing short squeeze, and late April shifting to Ethereum's catch-up phase. Polymarket predicts a 71% chance that Bitcoin will recover to $80,000 before the end of April. The declining reserves of Bitcoin on exchanges also provide additional upward elasticity.
Focus for tomorrow: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and Powell's farewell speech
On April 28-29, the Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting, which will be Powell's last as Fed Chair—his term ends on May 15. The Department of Justice has completed its criminal investigation into him, and the market expects President Trump’s nominee Kevin W. will succeed him after congressional hearings. CME "FedWatch" data shows a 100% probability of holding rates steady, with only a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June. If oil prices remain above $100, the Fed's ability to cut rates immediately will be limited. Powell is likely to maintain a neutral dovish stance at this meeting, but his farewell speech's wording could temporarily impact the dollar exchange rate and global risk assets.
Trading strategy: coping with triple divergence
Short-term traders should note that Bitcoin is currently oscillating narrowly between $77,000 and $79,000, with a "price rise and volume decline" signal on the 4-hour chart, MACD at high levels showing fatigue, making chasing higher risky. Aggressive traders can try short positions near $79,000-$79,500 with tight stops above $80,500; or wait for a pullback to $77,000 to confirm support before going long. Breaking above the $80,000 psychological level is difficult; if the first support at $77,000 breaks, it will test the $75,000 line. The recommended approach is to be cautious, observe how the FOMC meeting impacts dollar assets, and then make decisions accordingly.
Mid- to long-term holders should note that the core structure of the triple divergence is "strong spot, weak futures," with medium- and long-term capital gradually replacing retail sentiment as the market driver. The ETF's cost basis for holding Bitcoin is around $81,000, which is the current key level in the bulls-bears contest, and the sustainability of subsequent inflows will be a critical variable. For long-term investors, areas below $75,000 still offer value for phased allocations, especially if US and Iran delegations can resume face-to-face negotiations within the next two weeks—this will be the biggest variable before late July.
Key risk warnings
FOMC policy uncertainty: Although rate hikes and cuts are not on the agenda, the policy path after Powell’s departure involves significant uncertainty, and the hawkish or dovish tilt of the new chair W. will reshape market expectations for the full-year interest rate trajectory.
Vulnerability implied by triple divergence: If spot ETF buying weakens or Ethereum ETF reverses, the ongoing negative funding rate environment could quickly expose market fragility.
US-Iran negotiation deadlock: Trust deficit remains high; Iran's Foreign Minister's visit to Russia on the 27th may be aimed at gaining more leverage for future negotiations. If talks break down again, oil and geopolitical premiums could be re-priced. Open interest remains high: BTC holdings are about $56.5 billion, ETH holdings about $32.9 billion, and rapid price swings could trigger liquidations.