Asian stock markets rose, and the dollar stabilized: global policy uncertainty looms over the market, and the performance of encryption assets is under close follow.

On Monday, Asian stock markets generally rose, but the Indian stock market fell due to new regulations on the H-1B visa by the United States. Despite the Fed's interest rate cut last week, market sentiment remains cautious, with traders weighing the future monetary policy path. The dollar index stabilized, while the yen weakened due to the Central Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, exacerbating market uncertainty. Against this backdrop, commodity prices rose, while encryption assets like Bitcoin also faced their own challenges, creating an interesting contrast with traditional markets.

Asian stock markets rise, new H-1B visa rules hit India's tech industry

According to Reuters, on Monday, Asian stock markets generally rose, and the dollar index stabilized. The market is weighing the monetary policy path following the Fed's interest rate cut last week. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump's measures to tighten worker visas have also dampened market sentiment.

Indian benchmark stock indices have declined after the Trump administration announced last Friday that it would require companies to pay $100,000 for new H-1B worker visas. This regulation poses a challenge to the tech industry, which heavily relies on skilled workers from India and China. US stock index futures are slightly lower, with S&P futures down 0.1%, while European futures also indicate a subdued opening.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan rose by 0.1%. The Nikkei index in Tokyo rose by 1.3%, and the Taiwan stock market rose by more than 1%, reaching a historical high. India's $283 billion information technology industry, which derives more than half of its revenue from the U.S., may experience short-term pain amid deteriorating U.S.-India relations. Last month, Trump doubled the tariffs on goods imported from India to as high as 50%, partly due to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil.

Kyle Rodda, a senior financial analyst at Capital.com, said: "First, this is a risk to operating costs and profit margins. Clearly, this could slightly raise wages and labor costs." "Tech companies could also run into trouble if they outsource to find enough workers that the U.S. does not have; they will face punitive measures."

In China, the stock market fluctuated as investors digested the positive signals from Trump indicating progress with Chinese leaders on the TikTok agreement.

Fed Policy Outlook and Monetary Trends

In terms of macroeconomics, after the Fed hinted that it would gradually ease its policies in the future, investors are still eager to understand the path of the United States' monetary policy. Traders expect that the Fed will lower interest rates by a total of 44 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of this year. This week, several policymakers are expected to speak, and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator data will also be released on Friday, which will set the tone for the recent interest rate outlook.

According to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, keeping the annualized rate at 2.9%, the same as in July, and higher than the 2.6% low reached in April.

Sycamore stated: "Although theoretically, even a shallower interest rate cut cycle should suppress the dollar, the dollar short trades have become crowded." He added that after a sharp decline in early 2025, the dollar index has lost its downward momentum in recent months. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, rose by 0.09% to 97.814. The index has fallen nearly 10% so far this year, but most of the decline occurred in the first half of 2025.

The Japanese yen has slightly weakened against the US dollar, reaching 148.20. Previously, the Bank of Japan made a hawkish decision at its meeting last Friday, although it kept interest rates unchanged, two committee members voted against maintaining rate stability. Despite the central bank keeping short-term rates unchanged, board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura proposed a motion to raise rates (although it was not passed), and the market sees this as a precursor to rising borrowing costs. Vasu Menon, Managing Director of Investment Strategy at OCBC Bank, stated that Friday's decision will be seen by the market as a signal that the Bank of Japan is gradually shifting towards a hawkish stance.

Commodities and the Crypto Market: A Comparative Analysis Under the Dual Hedging Narrative

In commodities, oil prices rose in early trading. Brent crude futures increased by 0.7% to $67.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 0.77% to $63.16 per barrel. Gold prices rose by 0.24% to $3692.79 per ounce, slightly below the historical high reached last week.

Against the backdrop of global macro uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market has also not been spared, creating an interesting contrast with traditional financial markets. Bitcoin is trading above $115,000, and despite facing resistance from the 100-hour simple moving average, it has shown a certain level of resilience after the price decline. As we have seen, the price of Bitcoin has retreated after failing to break above $117,000, but its key support level remains between $114,000 and $113,000.

In the analysis, it can be found that although gold and Bitcoin both benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts, they play different roles. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, rises amid a weak dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin, as digital gold and an emerging risk asset, similarly benefits from similar macro drivers. Trump's new H-1B visa regulations put pressure on traditional tech stocks, which may prompt some investors to reconsider their asset allocation and shift part of their funds into digital assets like Bitcoin to hedge against policy risks in traditional markets.

Conclusion

The market trend on Monday clearly reflected the complex challenges facing the global financial system. From the policy choices of China's Central Bank to the trade protectionism in the United States, and the currency game between the yen and the dollar, multiple factors are shaping the future direction of the market. Amid this uncertainty, gold's position as a traditional safe-haven asset is strengthened, while Bitcoin's appeal as a digital safe-haven asset is also increasingly enhanced. The trends of both are resonating with each other to some extent, collectively reflecting the urgent demand of investors for asset preservation and appreciation in the current environment.