HTX DeepThink: BTC falls below support triggering a chain of sell pressure, market sentiment enters a fragile tipping point.

Recently, Bitcoin has fallen below an important support level, leading to a rapid decline in overall sentiment in the crypto market. In this issue's column, HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) will analyze the current fragile market structure by discussing Bitcoin's technical patterns, dynamics of the derivation market, and upcoming macroeconomic data.

Market imbalance is worsening, and panic sentiment is rising.

As of the early morning of September 26, Bitcoin has fallen below the support level of $114,500 ~ $115,000, with the latest quote around $112,967. Over the past week, more than $92.7 million has flowed out of exchanges, and the on-chain return rate (SOPR) has declined, resulting in over $400 million in liquidations. The technical indicators show that the 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average and converged with the 100-day moving average. The RSI has dropped to 36, approaching the oversold zone but has not yet shown a clear reversal signal. The cost price for short-term holders is around $111,400, and whales have sold approximately 147,000 BTC over the past month, putting pressure on market sentiment.

The data from the options market shows a prevailing bearish sentiment. The “maximum pain point” in Deribit data is at $110,000, and the perpetual contract funding rate has dropped to about 4%, indicating a subdued speculative fervor. The proportion of bearish options trading has increased, with the Put/Call trading ratio continuing to decline, suggesting that investors prefer to use in-the-money bearish options to lock in profits. Meanwhile, the total open interest is approaching historical highs, Gamma exposure is near peak levels, and market makers have to hedge during the downturn, amplifying price volatility.

The sentiment is equally pessimistic. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows a value of 28 on September 25, falling within the “fear” range, down from 44 the previous day and 53 last week, indicating a rapid deterioration in investor sentiment. According to the definition of this index, 0–25 is extreme fear, 26–46 is fear, and 47–54 is neutral. This means the market is shifting from neutral to a clear risk aversion. The VIX (Volatility Index) of U.S. stocks above 16 indicates that the market expects increased volatility over the next 30 days. Financial analysis platform CoffeewithQ points out that a VIX above 16 does not indicate panic, but traders expect market volatility to intensify, possibly due to upcoming important economic data, geopolitical risks, and technical weaknesses; when the VIX is in the 16–20 range, market sentiment is defined as “volatility rising,” while 20–30 tends to be tense, and above 30 enters panic territory. We believe that the current fear index presents a good opportunity for bottom fishing.

Future trends will still be dominated by key macro data.

Next week's macroeconomic data may become a key factor in influencing sentiment. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release the August personal income and spending data on September 26. Current widespread predictions forecast a month-on-month increase in personal income of 0.3% and a 0.5% increase in personal consumption expenditures; the PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and reach 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index, which is of more concern to the Federal Reserve, is expected to fall to 0.2% month-on-month while remaining around 2.9% year-on-year. If the core PCE exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may continue to exercise caution, which would be unfavorable for risk assets. Subsequently, the non-farm payroll report for September will be released on October 3, with the market generally expecting a slowdown in growth. If the data is strong, it may further raise interest rate expectations, potentially increasing selling pressure in the crypto market; conversely, it could alleviate pressure. Additionally, the U.S. balance of payments data released on September 29 and the ISM manufacturing index at the beginning of October are also important indicators for assessing economic momentum.

Overall, the technical indicators are oversold, the bearish positions in the options market, and the rising panic sentiment indicate that the crypto market is currently in a fragile stage. In the short term, the market may continue to test the 110,000 USD support level and pay attention to whether a “liquidation-style” panic occurs; if it holds the key support and is accompanied by weak core PCE and employment data, the market may see a rebound from an oversold condition.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

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About HTX Research HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of areas including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, as well as writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and facilitating a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us. If you wish to communicate, please contact [email protected]