Risk aversion spikes! Gold breaks through $3839 to reach a historic high, as the U.S. government shutdown crisis exacerbates data release uncertainties.

According to Bloomberg, due to increasing concerns over a possible U.S. government shutdown, the price of traditional safe-haven asset gold continues to rise, once breaking through $3,839 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Although the U.S. dollar index has not changed much after two consecutive days of decline, the risk of a government shutdown has already begun to impact global markets. Investors are most worried that the shutdown could lead to a delay in the release of critical economic data, especially this Friday's non-farm payroll report, thereby increasing anxiety in the market regarding the Fed's rate cut path. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks and trade protectionism, market risk aversion is high, and funds are flowing into safe assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Demand for Hedging: Gold Hits New Highs, Dollar Steady, US Treasuries Favored

As U.S. Vice President JD Vance clearly indicated that the likelihood of a government shutdown is very high, market risk aversion has been pushed to a peak, leading to a surge of funds into gold.

· Gold Price: As a safe-haven asset, gold price has surpassed $3,839 per ounce, setting a new record high.

· US Dollar and US Stocks: The indicators measuring the dollar changed little after two consecutive days of decline, while US stock index futures fell slightly by 0.1%, and Asian stock markets remained flat.

· US Treasury Trends: After rising across the curve on the previous trading day, US Treasury prices saw little change on Tuesday. Typically, a government shutdown is accompanied by a rise in US Treasuries, as a shutdown may suppress economic growth, causing the yield on the 10-year US Treasury to drop to 4.14%.

The recent breakthrough in gold highlights the market's concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty, especially with the funding deadline of October 1 approaching, as President Trump and congressional leaders' last-minute efforts failed to meet the Democrats' demands, sharply increasing the risk of a shutdown.

"Data Vacuum" Threatens Fed Decision: Non-Farm Report Becomes Market Focus

Investors' biggest concern is that a government shutdown will hinder the release of some key economic data, impacting the market's assessment of the state of the U.S. economy.

· Key data latency: Among them, the most concerning is the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release on Friday, which will provide detailed information on labor market performance and is the key basis for the Fed's decision on whether and when to cut interest rates.

· Heightened policy uncertainty: Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., stated, "Given the importance of the labor market to the Fed's interest rate decision, the risk of a delayed release of the September unemployment rate report may exacerbate market anxiety over the direction of policy."

In addition to Friday's non-farm payroll report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report will be released on Tuesday, and Wednesday's data will reveal the hiring situation of companies. Strategists point out that the recent negative revisions and downward trends in employment data make Friday's report even more critical.

Global Market and Geopolitical Dynamics: Optimism in China and Tech Stocks, Oil Prices Under Pressure

In the global market, the risk of a government shutdown in the United States puts pressure on the dollar, driving emerging market assets to begin to rise.

· Asian Markets and the AI Boom: Ahead of China's week-long National Day holiday, the index of Chinese tech stocks listed in the U.S. soared by 2%. Investors continued to buy Chinese stock ETFs last week, joining the AI-driven rally in the onshore stock market, which has risen by $2.7 trillion.

· China's stimulus policy: China has announced it will provide 500 billion yuan (approximately 70 billion USD) in funding to stimulate investment, a move aimed at boosting economic growth. Additionally, the Central Committee of the Communist Party plans to hold a closed-door meeting in October to review the development plan for the next five years.

· Uncertainty in trade policy: Trump has announced new tariffs to boost the domestic film and furniture industries. Emma Wall, Chief Investment Strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, warns that investors should be alert to the inflationary impact of tariffs that is not fully reflected in existing data, such as the 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products announced last week, which could increase price pressures.

· Geopolitics and Oil Prices: Oil prices have declined for the second consecutive trading day as the market weighs the risks of oversupply and the prospect of the Gaza conflict potentially coming to an end, which could eliminate some of the war risk premium. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reached a 20-point plan to end the Gaza war, although the peace prospects remain unclear without direct involvement from Hamas.

Central Bank and Company News: Fed Officials Have Divergent Opinions, Google and EA Reach a Deal

Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the path of interest rate cuts: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that while he is willing to lower rates further, inflation remains above target, and policymakers should proceed with caution; meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams believes that inflation risks have decreased, but employment risks have risen, although he did not clearly state whether he supports the next rate cut at the end of October.

In terms of company news:

· Zijin Gold International: Zijin Gold International Co., the international arm of China’s largest mining company Zijin Mining, raised $3.2 billion through the world’s largest initial public offering (IPO) since May and will begin trading in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

· Electronic Arts Inc. has agreed to be acquired by a group of investors, including a company managed by Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Trump, and the Saudi Arabian Sovereign Wealth Fund, which will become the largest leveraged buyout on record.

· Google and Huawei: Alphabet Inc.'s Google has agreed to pay $24.5 million to settle Trump’s allegations that the ban on its YouTube channel was illegal censorship; Huawei Technologies Co. is preparing to significantly increase the production of its state-of-the-art artificial intelligence chips in the coming year.

Conclusion

Against the backdrop of an impending government shutdown crisis, global financial markets are caught in a high degree of uncertainty. The record rise in gold prices clearly reflects investors' concerns about U.S. policy risks and the vacuum of economic data. The threat of this shutdown, particularly the potential latency in the release of the non-farm payroll report, poses a "blind" risk to the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of October. In the coming weeks, signs of easing geopolitical tensions and China's stimulus policies will clash with the domestic political stalemate and trade protectionism in the U.S., jointly shaping the direction of global assets, but short-term safe-haven demand will still dominate market sentiment.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.