Trump's Truth Social enters the prediction market, competing directly with Polymarket.

Written by: Joel Khalili, Wired Magazine

Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Truth Social is a social media platform predominantly owned by former U.S. President Donald Trump and his family, which is launching a cryptocurrency-based betting service that will directly compete with the popular Polymarket.

The new service called “Truth Predict” will allow Truth Social users to use cryptocurrency as betting capital to predict the outcomes of specific events, covering areas such as sports competitions, political campaigns, and even economic changes. Truth Social is operated by the publicly traded Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).

Typically, a single prediction is presented in the form of a binary question, such as: “Will Taylor Swift release a new original song before October 2?” or “Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?”

As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, prediction markets are making their first foray into the mainstream. Supporters claim that these markets are a superior alternative to traditional opinion polls and are a more efficient “source of truth.”

Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, stated in a statement: “Through Truth Predict, we are driving the democratization of information, allowing the American people to leverage collective intelligence to turn free speech into actionable foresight.”

Truth Predict is launched in collaboration with the affiliated institution of the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. Currently, the prediction market space is mainly dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have recently completed financing at valuations of several billion dollars.

At the launch of Truth Predict, Polymarket is planning to return to the U.S. market - previously, the platform was forced to exit the U.S. during the presidency of Joe Biden. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Polymarket with operating an unregistered derivatives trading market, and Polymarket reached a settlement with the agency, with exiting the U.S. market being one of the conditions of the settlement.

In November 2024, the residence of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating whether the platform had violated an injunction in a settlement agreement by continuing to accept bets from U.S. residents (Coplan was not arrested or charged).

In January 2025, after Trump returned to the White House, the situation changed. Under the Trump administration, regulators halted lawsuits against well-known cryptocurrency companies, and the Department of Justice instructed prosecutors to “turn a blind eye” to certain cryptocurrency-related crimes.

In July of the same year, Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice had concluded its investigation into Polymarket and had not filed any charges, clearing the way for the company's return to the U.S. market.

Zach Hamilton, the founder of the cryptocurrency startup Sarcophagus, said in an interview with Wired: “If there is a key reason for the (cryptocurrency prediction market) to return to the U.S., it must be the Trump administration - in short, it is Donald Trump himself.”

In fact, before the launch of Truth Predict, the Trump family already held economic interests in the development of prediction markets in the United States.

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor; in August of the same year, Polymarket received an investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital, of which Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of the deal, he also joined the advisory board of Polymarket.

Just as Polymarket seeks to return to the U.S. market, the Trump family has established a connection with the platform. This situation has drawn close attention from critics who believe that this investment may constitute a conflict of interest. Critics argue that this deal creates opportunities for the Trump family to profit from the policy changes pushed by the Trump administration.

Jeff Hauser, the executive director of the Revolving Door Project (an organization dedicated to overseeing the behavior of elected officials), stated: “No one would say that in capitalist countries, the family of the president cannot engage in normal capitalist activities. But Polymarket is embroiled in intense political controversy, so this investment reflects significant conflicts of interest - and this conflict could have been avoided.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded in a statement to Wired: “The President and his family have never and will never be involved in any conflicts of interest.”

As of now, Polymarket, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), and 1789 Capital have not responded to requests for comment.

The launch of Truth Predict may also lead to different branches of the Trump family's business empire entering into direct competition.

Chris Perkins, managing partner of the cryptocurrency venture capital firm CoinFund, stated: “From a venture capital perspective, many of us are reluctant to invest in projects that have competitive relationships and will try to avoid such situations — we will strive to identify 'category winners.'”

In fact, businesses associated with the Trump family have long been operating competing Bitcoin treasury companies; in June 2025, there was also a dispute over “which company has the right to launch the 'official' Trump brand cryptocurrency wallet.”