Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said that investors lost interest in cryptocurrencies after bitcoin hit a new high last month, which more broadly signaled that the frenzy for risk assets and the U.S. stock market is fading. The team led by Barry Bannister, the firm's chief equity strategist, believes that "a peak in Bitcoin signals weakness in the stock market. According to Bannister, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 are synonymous with "speculative fever" after the Fed's policy pivot began in the fourth quarter of 2023, and that the Fed's dovish stance has triggered a market frenzy and Bitcoin "may be peaking." Bitcoin has fallen about 10% since hitting its high on March 13.

Investors who are selling U.S. stocks because the Fed is likely to cut interest rates less often ignore a key issue. Andrew Slimmon from Morgan Stanley Investment Management believes that if the Fed cuts interest rates less, it will bode well for the economy and the stock market. "I think a patient Fed is a clear sign of economic strength and better for the stock market," Slimmon said Tuesday. Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said a patient Fed is good for the stock market.

The market expects U.S. API crude oil inventories to fall for the third consecutive week last week, and gasoline inventories to fall for the eighth consecutive week. However, the API crude oil inventory report for the week to March 22 showed that the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by about 9.34 million barrels last week, compared with the official data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the largest increase since the week of November 3, 2023, Cushing crude oil inventories also increased sharply, and gasoline inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week as expected. WTI crude hovered near $81.50 ahead of the API data before drifting lower on an unexpected rise in crude inventories. As gasoline inventories fall, wholesale gasoline prices will rise in tandem with retail prices, which does not bode well for Powell or Biden.

Danske Bank noted that oil prices remained stable amid a series of turbulences. As the Red Sea crisis continues, with supply disruptions caused by extreme cold in the United States, it is likely that the United States will continue to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves. In addition, healthy U.S. retail sales should bode well for oil demand, but the oil market seems to be blind to this. We expect Brent to average $80/b this year.

(1) U.S. consumers' long-term inflation expectations rose to their highest level since 2011, while heightened concerns about high borrowing costs and the economic outlook dealt a fresh blow to sentiment in early November. According to preliminary data from the University of Michigan in November, consumers expect prices to rise at a rate of 3.2 percent per year over the next five to 10 years, up from 3 percent a month ago. According to data released on Friday (November 10), they expect costs to rise by 4.4% next year, compared to 4.2% last month; (2) According to the report, both short-term and long-term gasoline prices are expected to rise to the highest level this year. This is inconsistent with the current trend in gas station prices, which have been steadily declining since the end of September. The university's consumer confidence index fell to a six-month low of 60.4, below all expectations in a survey of economists. Although Americans are slightly optimistic about their finances, indicators of purchasing conditions and economic prospects have deteriorated; (3) Joanne Hsu, director of surveys at the University of Michigan, said in a statement: "The combination of expectations for persistently high prices, high borrowing costs, and a weak labor market does not bode well for the outlook for continued strong consumer spending and economic growth." "Nearly one in five consumers surveyed said unemployment will cause more hardship than inflation in the coming year. The government's latest jobs report showed hiring concentrated in only a few industries, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level since early 2022.

Stubborn inflation and "premature" pricing in Fed easing bode well for the dollar, Bank of America analysts said in a note. “We still see upside risks (for the dollar) to pricing in premature rate cuts through the remainder of 2023,” they said, adding that they expected the greenback to move “towards long-term equilibrium” by 2024. Markets are mostly betting on inflation slowing fast enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates from early next year, but Bank of America said a tight labor market and loose fiscal policy could keep inflation sticky.