How will the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut decision affect the crypto assets market? This question is on the minds of many investors.

On October 29, if the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, Bitcoin #加密市场回调 BTC( and Ethereum )ETH( are likely to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but whether this upward trend can be sustained remains highly uncertain.

Historical experience shows that interest rate cuts are not a guaranteed investment opportunity. Although rate cuts typically favor high-risk assets in the short term, as seen when Bitcoin immediately rose by 1% after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September, mainstream Crypto Assets generally strengthened. However, this positive effect often proves difficult to sustain. The interest rate cut cycles of 2019 and 2020 indicated that the market often "hypes expectations first, then sells the reality later." Even after the interest rate cut in December 2024, due to Powell suggesting that future rate cut space is limited, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a significant decline.

The current market situation is more complex. Bitcoin has reached a historic high of $126,000 this month, and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have been fully digested. If there are no more positive factors to stimulate the market after the interest rate cut is implemented, it may repeat the scenario in September where the "news led to a decline" (during which the market cap evaporated by approximately $60 billion).

From a medium to long-term perspective, the interest rate cut environment is generally favorable for the recovery of risk assets, and funds may flow back into the Crypto Assets market. Coupled with the continuous net inflow of funds into ETFs and institutional investors deepening their positions, the support factors in the medium term still exist.

Comprehensive Analysis:
- If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points (in line with market expectations): there may be a rise followed by a fall in the short term, and the risk of a pullback after the benefits of the rate cut materialize needs to be vigilant.
- If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points (beyond market expectations): it may trigger a general rise in the Crypto Assets market, but investors should also guard against a rapid decline after overheating emotions.

Investment Advice:
Pay close attention to the Fed's policy statements and Powell's speech content, set profit and loss points in advance, and reasonably control your position. In this type of policy-driven market, grasping the market rhythm is more important than simply chasing news.