Recently, I’ve been reflecting on a fascinating 19th-century model that many people probably overlook. It’s the Benner Cycle — a theory developed by an ordinary farmer, Samuel Benner, who, after a series of financial disasters, sought to understand why markets behave cyclically.

Interestingly, Benner was not a professional economist. His discoveries stemmed from personal experiences — crashes, economic panics, and subsequent recoveries. In 1875, he published his work describing recurring patterns in commodity and stock markets. His observation was simple: markets don’t operate chaotically; they follow predictable cycles.

The Benner cycle is divided into three key periods. The first is panic years — when crashes and financial panics occur. Benner identified them approximately every 18-20 years: 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and future years like 2035 or 2053. The second period is when markets reach peaks and it’s a good time to sell — 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007, and now approaching 2026. The third is trough periods, ideal for buying — 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, 2012 — when prices are low and the outlook looks bleak.

What caught my attention? How well this works in modern markets, especially in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin exhibits similar cyclical behavior in its four-year halving cycle. Emotional extremes — euphoria and panic — are exactly what Benner described. Looking at 2019, we saw a significant correction, aligning with his panic forecast. And now, as we approach 2026, the theory suggests we should be in a growth phase.

Practically speaking, the Benner cycle provides us with a map. During a bull run, when markets are at their peak and everyone is euphoric — it’s time to consider exiting positions and securing profits. During a bear market, when everyone is panicking — it’s the time to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets at low prices.

It’s worth noting that Benner mainly studied agricultural commodities, but his theory also applies to stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. For me, this means financial markets are not entirely unpredictable — they are rooted in human psychology and behaviors that repeat in cycles.

If you’re planning your investment strategy, it’s helpful to view the Benner cycle as a long-term compass. Combining market psychology with Benner’s cyclical approach can give you solid fundamentals for decision-making — whether you’re trading stocks or cryptocurrencies. On Gate.io, you can track these cycles with real market data and adjust your positions accordingly based on this theory.