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Opinion: The crypto market is still in a state of accumulation, and volatility could explode at any time.
PANews June 20 news, Singapore crypto investment institution QCP Capital stated that the global market remains in a wait-and-see attitude, as investors assess geopolitical risks and the potential for a resurgence in fluctuations. Gold surged and then retreated after the June 13 Israeli attack, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices still held around the $75 mark. The energy market continues to be constrained by the Israel-Iran conflict, with speculation rising about possible U.S. military intervention. The dollar weakened slightly as investors bet on an increased likelihood of direct U.S. involvement in regional conflicts within the next 48 hours, leading to a moderate withdrawal of funds from the dollar. In terms of crypto assets, BTC continues to show a sideways trend. Despite increasing macro uncertainty and political noise from Trump's social media remarks, price fluctuations remain subdued. Market sentiment is cautious, and holdings data indicate that investors are waiting for clearer catalysts. The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in the June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge against downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting their spot positions. Notably, the implied volatility of ETH's June at-the-money options has fallen below that of the September contracts, reflecting a contraction in the short-term specific risk premium, which may be related to a reduction in event-driven hedging or profit-taking on short-term volatility. In contrast, BTC's near-month contracts still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current crypto market remains in a state of readiness, where the next headline news, macro shift, or tail event could trigger a historic level of volatility.