Gold hits new highs while Bitcoin wavers: Geopolitical challenges test the "digital gold" narrative

As geopolitical tensions escalate, global markets have shown a clear divergence: gold has soared to a historic high, while Bitcoin has fallen along with stocks and other risk assets. This trend not only widens the gap between traditional safe-haven assets and Digital Money but also raises a critical question: does Bitcoin truly possess the safe-haven properties of "digital gold" in times of crisis? Although it has underperformed in the short term, Bitcoin's Technical Analysis still shows a strong bullish structure, indicating that its long-term potential remains unchanged.

Market Reaction: Risk Assets and Safe-Haven Assets Part Ways

Geopolitical Shock: Israel's attack actions in Qatar have shaken global market sentiment. Investors have quickly turned to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and oil, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen in sync with the stock market.

The crypto market has been hit hard: Coinglass data shows that nearly $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $44 million in long positions taking the brunt. ETH and BTC suffered liquidations of $11.9 million and $10.5 million, respectively, while Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin also saw declines, with DOGE falling by 3.2%.

The "digital gold" narrative is under pressure: In stark contrast, gold prices have soared to record highs, and oil prices have risen by $1 per barrel, reflecting typical crisis "safe-haven" behavior. Data shows that the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned negative, directly challenging Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold." Analysts believe that until institutional confidence deepens further, Bitcoin will continue to resemble a high-beta risk asset rather than a traditional hedging tool.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Despite macro turbulence, the technical pattern remains bullish.

Despite the uncertainty in the macro environment, Bitcoin's technical trend still maintains a bullish signal.

Bullish Pattern: On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a classic ascending triangle pattern, with higher lows continually pushing towards the resistance level of $113,800.

Momentum indicators are favorable: The RSI indicator is above 64, indicating strong momentum. The 50-period simple moving average (50-SMA) is rising towards the breakout zone, while the 200-period simple moving average (200-SMA) provides additional support below the current price.

Potential targets: If Bitcoin can hold steady at $113,800, its upward targets will be $115,400, $117,150, and $118,600. If it breaks through more decisively, the mid-term target is expected to extend to $125,000.

Risk and Countermeasures: If the price fails to hold above $112,000, there may be a risk of retracement, with the downside target possibly falling to $111,000, or even $108,450.

Conclusion

This geopolitical event has become a severe test of Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes. Although it has shown a high correlation with risk assets in the short term and failed to serve as a safe haven for funds like gold, its strong technical formation and the growing institutional demand indicate that the long-term "supercycle" narrative for Bitcoin remains solid. The market is closely watching to see if Bitcoin can successfully break through the current key resistance levels and quickly recover after the short-term impact to prove its resilience and potential as an emerging asset class.