XRP to突破 20 USD in October 2025? Analyst: May迎來歷史上最大pump

Ripple (XRP) has recently been oscillating around 3 dollars, but a market analyst believes that if the historical pattern after Bitcoin (BTC) halving repeats, XRP is expected to break through 20 dollars on October 17, 2025, marking the largest pump in history. This prediction is based on the price rhythm of past halving cycles, as well as XRP's potential explosive power under favorable regulatory conditions and product deployment.

Halving cycle pattern: Bitcoin leads the pump, XRP follows

(Source: X)

Cryptocurrency expert Diana pointed out that the halving cycle from 2016 to 2017 is the most typical case. Bitcoin halved on July 9, 2016, and 525 days later (on December 18, 2017) reached a high of $19,000; XRP surged to $3.31 on January 5, 2018, 18 days later than the peak of BTC.

She believes that if a similar rhythm reoccurs after the Halving in 2024, XRP may reach a cycle peak in October 2025, with prices breaking through 20 dollars.

"Lost Cycle" and Regulatory Turning Point

However, during the 2020–2021 cycle, XRP failed to replicate this pattern. Bitcoin reached a high of $69,000 in November 2021, while XRP stopped at $1.95 as early as April 2021 due to pressure from the SEC lawsuit and delisting from exchanges.

In July 2023, a US court ruled that most sales of XRP do not qualify as securities, dispelling regulatory uncertainties, leading to several US exchanges relisting XRP. Ripple is also accelerating its product deployment, including the launch of the RLUSD stablecoin and a new payment channel, and is pushing for multiple XRP ETF applications.

Three price scenarios: from 5 dollars to over 20 dollars

Diana proposed three possible scenarios:

Mild Market: Bitcoin's trend is stable, and XRP rises to 5–7 dollars.

ETF and use case promotion: capital inflow and application enhancement, price reaches 10–15 dollars.

Institutional capital explodes: a large influx of liquidity, XRP breaks through 20 dollars.

She emphasized that the approval of the ETF and the adoption rate of cross-border payments will be key catalysts.

Prediction Discrepancy: Optimism and Caution Coexist

Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered Bank, expects that XRP will play a more important role in international finance and is optimistic about the funding effect brought by future ETFs, setting a target price of $12.25 for 2029, which means an increase of over 300% from the current $2.95.

However, Morningstar analysts believe that the long-term annual growth rate of the cryptocurrency market may only be around 10%, which is close to historical stock market performance, suggesting that the long-term pump of XRP may be more moderate.

Conclusion

As the market cycle gradually unfolds after the Bitcoin Halving, whether XRP can break through $20 in October 2025 will depend on regulatory policies, ETF progress, and institutional capital inflow. For investors, this is both a potential opportunity to rewrite history and a challenge that requires careful risk assessment.