Will Bitcoin fall back to $30,000 or pump to $210,000? Analysts, forecasting models fight a "price war"

By Chloe, PANews

Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate in recent days, and the direction of the future market has attracted much attention, and analysts have very different views.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt's forecast released on April 29 states that Bitcoin has peaked in the current Bull Market cycle and that the forecast Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 long or even lower. This happens to be the opposite of the price models and forecasts in the long market, which believe that Bitcoin is still far from the peak of the current cycle, possibly peaking at $210,000 before the end of the Bull Market, so Peter Brandt's prediction has sparked a lot of debate in the market.

According to Peter Brandt's article, the theoretical condition he proposed is that Bitcoin's bull market cycle shows a pattern of "exponential decay", which is also his conclusion from Bitcoin's observation of four bull market cycles.

That is, when the peak price of each consecutive cycle is only about 20% of the peak pump of the previous cycle, it qualifies as "exponential decay". The data also shows that this has happened in the last three Bitcoin market cycles.

2011-2013 was about 20% of the size of 2009-2011

2015-2017 size is about 20% of 2011-2013

2018-2021 size is about 20% of 2015-2017

At this rate of decay, Brandt estimates that this round of Bull Market will only pump about 4.5 times, or pump to about $70,000, from the low. Bitcoin did reach $73,000 in March. However, Brandt is not very sure of his theory, and he believes that there is only a 25% chance that Bitcoin has peaked.

Assuming that Bitcoin has indeed peaked, Peter Brandt believes that the price could fall back to around $30,000 to the 2021 lows, but from a Technical Analysis point of view, such a large fall would be the most advantageous development for the long-term market.

Based on long-term power-law behavior, Brandt's theory is completely wrong?

Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy, proposed another theory based on long-term power-law behavior that is the exact opposite of Brandt's prediction.

Santostasi argues that Brandt's theory uses only three historical data points, and that it is necessary to deduct the one before the Halving because Brandt's analysis includes the 4 years after the birth of Bitcoin, the bubble before the first Halving. Santostasi, on the other hand, argues that the bubble behaves irregularly and should be excluded from the analysis and focus only on the cycles associated with the Halving.

While the remaining two pieces of data are simply not enough for reliable statistical analysis, Santostasi measured the percentage of Bitcoin's all-time highs that deviated from the long-term power-law trend, arriving at another exponential decay model. (Bitcoin price obeys a power-law distribution, meaning that its rise is nonlinear, scale-immutability, and somewhat predictable)

According to this model, the fourth Bull Market could peak around December 2025, with a maximum price of about $210,000 before falling back to around $83,000. Santostasi's analysis takes into account longing data such as the power-law trend of Bitcoin prices, the quadrennial Halving cycle, and exponential decay at all-time highs.

In addition, many experts have given predictions for the peak of this round of Bitcoin Bull Market:

• Pav Hundal, an analyst at Swyftx, believes that Bitcoin will at least double in price to around $120,000 by the next Halving in 2028.
• Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading and quantitative trading strategy expert, expects the Bull Market to peak around $180,000.
• Fidelity Digital Assets revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin (1 to 5 years) from "positive" to "neutral" on April 22. It was also revealed that in the medium term, Bitcoin "is no longer cheap".

In short, when this round of Bull Market peaks and can pump to long high, long many analysts in the market have different views, but most long still believe that Bitcoin is still some distance from the peak, and around $70,000 should not be the end of the Bull Market.