QCP: The market interprets the reduction of the "quantitative tightening" plan as an indirect interest rate cut, and the options market shifts back to call options.

BlockBeats News: On March 20, QCP released its daily market observation, saying that last night's FOMC meeting brought a long-awaited upward catalyst to the market, pushing the price of Bitcoin above $85,000 and showing a sharp rise. The Fed decided to scale back its "quantitative tightening" program starting in April. Markets interpreted this as an indirect rate cut, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would begin easing as early as June. At the time of writing, the market is pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, in June, September, and December. Aside from the immediate euphoria, the Fed's tone is decidedly cautious. Policymakers lowered their economic growth forecasts to 1.7% (a decrease of 0.4 percentage points) while raising inflation forecasts to 2.8%, suggesting that stagflation risks are rising. In addition, the Fed's dot plot shows a more hawkish shift compared to December, with the number of officials expected not to cut rates in 2025 increasing to four. In the options market, market positioning has returned to normal, with skewness shifting back to calls. This is in stark contrast to the skewed bias towards put options earlier in the week. The key test now will come tonight when the US market opens.