In 1995, preventive interest rate cuts: a slight reduction in interest rates, a soft landing for the economy, and steady asset rises (from 6% to 5.25%, a total reduction of only 75 basis points).

2007: Emergency rate cuts: significant rate cuts, economic soft landing, assets first fall then rise (from 5.25% to 0.25%, a reduction of 500 basis points)

2020 Panic Rate Cuts: Emergency rate cuts, extreme volatility, V-shaped asset reversal (directly dropped from 1.75% to 0.25% within 10 days while simultaneously launching "unlimited quantitative easing")

The first chart shows that, from the data, it now resembles the preemptive interest rate cuts of 1995. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, which is not high; GDP is still growing, with no recession; inflation has fallen from a peak of 9% in September 2022 to around 3%.

Current holding amount
The national government has confiscated a considerable amount of Bitcoin through law enforcement actions, estimated to hold nearly 200,000 coins, making it the government known to hold the most Bitcoin.

The Chinese government is also believed to hold a large amount of Bitcoin (estimated at around 194,000 coins) through crackdowns on cybercrime, but the policy stance is different.

Maximum supply 21 million coins as stipulated by the protocol, unchangeable

Current circulating supply ≈ 19.92 million coins ( as of September 2025 ) refers to the mined Bitcoin.

Estimated actual circulation ≈ 16-17 million coins Subtracting the permanently lost portion (estimated 3-4 million permanently lost, with some estimates exceeding 6 million)

Satoshi Nakamoto holds approximately 1.1 million coins, distributed across about 22,000 addresses, and has not moved them since 2010.

Large listed companies hold MicroStrategy holds approximately 639,000 coins (as of September 2025)



is the publicly traded company with the largest holdings of Bitcoin in the world.

The U.S. government holds ≈ 198,000 coins primarily obtained through law enforcement actions.

Bitcoin ETF holdings BlackRock's IBIT ETF holds 375,000 coins (as of January 2025) ETF holdings belong to investors, and BlackRock is a major holder type of Bitcoin.

Summary: My personal judgment is that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is high, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is very low.

Capital inflow:
Bitcoin spot ETF recently saw a net inflow of $642 million for 5 consecutive days (as of the week of September 12, 2025)

Ethereum ETF recent fund flow Net inflow of $406 million for 4 consecutive days (as of the week ending September 12, 2025)

Since 2024, the funds flowing into the Bitcoin chain have exceeded the total from 2009 to 2024, indicating that a large amount of capital may have been positioned in advance.

Summary: At the moment the interest rate cut is implemented, some early entrants may choose to sell for profit, which will likely lead to a sell-off that could cause short-term market fluctuations or even a pullback.

All data summary: Anyway, this interest rate cut is basically confirmed to be 25 basis points. In the short term, the market sentiment area is mild because the market benefits of Bitcoin and Ethereum have been digested in advance, and the upward space will not be too large, at most around 120,000. After the interest rate cut is implemented, the short-term outlook will mainly be bearish, and it's possible that there will be 2-3 more rate cuts this year. Long-term, definitely bullish. SOL target 300, Bitcoin target 130,000-140,000, BNB target 1,500, Ethereum 6,000-8,000. To reach this height, another rate cut must follow; otherwise, after the interest rate cut is implemented, the probability of a pullback is 90%. At the moment the rate cut is implemented, some early entrants might choose to sell for profit, which is likely to crash the market, possibly causing short-term fluctuations or even a pullback. Hope this helps you.