#BTC战略储备市场影响# #Gate广场创作点亮中秋#

On March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order announcing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States, triggering severe turbulence in the global cryptocurrency market! This reserve is centered around approximately 200,000 Bitcoins held by the federal government, with these assets primarily sourced from criminal and civil forfeiture processes, with a clear commitment that "no taxpayer funds will be used, and the reserve Bitcoins will never be sold off." However, recently, the U.S. Treasury Department, in partnership with bipartisan lawmakers, has reignited the topic of the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve," discussing whether to include BTC in the national asset allocation framework.

If this issue is successfully passed, it will undoubtedly be a significant boon for the digital currency market. However, whether it can trigger a new round of bull market still needs to be comprehensively considered based on various factors, such as the source of funds for BTC strategic reserves, the proportion of BTC after being incorporated into the national asset allocation framework, and whether there is an upper limit on its total market value.
✅First, the source of funds for the BTC strategic reserve is crucial. If the new proposal is passed and federal reserve funds, also known as "taxpayer money," are used to purchase and increase Bitcoin reserves, even if the purchase amount is not large, it will undoubtedly be a significant positive factor. This means that the world's first superpower (previously, El Salvador also established a BTC national reserve) will incorporate digital currency into the national financial system and fund purchases in the name of the state. Bitcoin, this "digital gold," will finally become a legal asset for balancing risks and strategic reserves, just like physical gold. Consequently, the price of the currency will definitely surge. Conversely, if the Bitcoin reserves in the new proposal are still only allocated from BTC confiscated by the state without any new purchases, then the extent of the positive impact will be quite limited. In March 2025, the market experienced a surge in Bitcoin when it was anticipated that Trump would sign a decree to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve. However, when the decree was announced stating that "taxpayer funds would not be used for new Bitcoin purchases," BTC plummeted by 5%. This also reflects the market's skepticism towards the establishment of this conceptual but not financially backed BTC strategic reserve.
​​​​​​​✅ Second, after BTC is included in national asset allocation, the proportion it occupies as an emerging strategic reserve is expected to be initially small. The subsequent rate of increase in scale reflects the U.S. government's trust in Bitcoin as an asset, and also determines how much incremental capital will flow into the Bitcoin market.

📈📈The current price of Bitcoin is around 116,500. If the favorable conditions materialize, I believe Bitcoin will break through the historical high of 124,500 in the short term. In the medium to long term, I believe Bitcoin will surpass 200,000 by the end of this year or before the first quarter of next year. The reasons are:
✅1. Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve means that it is listed in the U.S. as a reserve asset alongside oil and gold. This move is seen as a transition from U.S. "petroleum hegemony" to "digital asset hegemony," attempting to replicate "gold hegemony" in the digital age. It lays the foundation for Bitcoin's legitimacy and strategic position in the financial sector. Other countries may also follow suit and implement related measures, making Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset worldwide, which will bring in trillions of dollars in funds.
              ✅2. The role of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve enhances confidence, encouraging traditional financial institutions and retail investors to enter the market, thus bringing in significant capital and liquidity. For example, the U.S. Department of Labor is exploring allowing 401(k) plans to hold cryptocurrencies, which could significantly expand retail investor access to the market.
              ✅3. The supply-demand relationship of Bitcoin will be improved due to strategic reserves: After the establishment of the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act," the government holds approximately 200,000 Bitcoins through criminal forfeiture procedures and has established a federal digital asset reserve system. Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent has clearly stated that the Bitcoins entering the strategic reserves will not be sold, which amounts to about 1% of the total BTC being permanently locked.
✅4. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is about to begin, bringing more liquidity to the Bitcoin market.

Once a proposal is put forward and approved, I believe it will be implemented within a month. This is mainly considering Trump's fondness for cryptocurrencies and his decisive working style. Additionally, we must consider that Bitcoin is currently in a bull market, and if the implementation is delayed, the U.S. Treasury might also be worried about missing the boat. 😜😜😜 Once the proposal is implemented, the purpose of the U.S. building "digital currency hegemony" will become even more apparent, which will also compel other countries to follow suit in establishing similar BTC strategic reserves. Among them, Russia, which has gradually relaxed its stance on digital currencies in recent years, may take the lead. European countries are also likely to take similar measures. Of course, what people are most concerned about is whether China will relax its regulation on virtual currencies as a result. From the issuance of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, it is also possible that mainland China will loosen its control over digital currencies in the future. I wonder what everyone thinks; feel free to leave a comment.