Based on the Ethereum hourly candlestick chart, the current international situation, and potential capital flows, a thorough analysis of Ethereum's future trend is conducted.

Please note that the following analysis is based on publicly available market information and technical analysis theory and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is extremely risky, and you should make independent judgments and decisions carefully.

Core Viewpoint

Currently, Ethereum is in a delicate position with a short-term bullish technical outlook, but facing key resistance challenges in the medium term. Its future trajectory will depend on whether it can effectively break through technical resistance levels and whether macro market sentiment can provide sustained capital inflow support.

1. In-depth technical analysis

Price and Moving Average System (EMA):

The current price (4609.25) has surpassed all key short-term moving averages, including EMA5(4557.85), EMA10(4538.79), and EMA30(4533.20). This is a positive signal for a short-term bullish outlook, indicating strong buying power recently and signs of a trend reversal.

The price is above all moving averages, and EMA5 > EMA10 > EMA30, forming a preliminary "bullish arrangement" trend, which is the technical basis for further price increases in the future.

Bollinger Bands (BOLL):

The current price is very close to the upper Bollinger Band (4625.31). The upper Bollinger Band is typically seen as a short-term resistance level.

Key Judgment: The price is running close to the upper track, which typically indicates that the market is in a strong upward trend. The next focus is:

Strong Breakthrough: If the trading volume increases and the price breaks through strongly and stabilizes above the upper line, the upward space will be opened, and the next target may look towards the previous high (as shown in the figure at 4868.42).

Encountering resistance and retreating: If there is no effective breakthrough of the upper band, it may encounter resistance at this position and retreat to seek support near the Bollinger middle band (4529.48). The middle band will be an important dividing line between bulls and bears in the short term.

Trading Volume

Volume Analysis (Vol): This is the core contradiction point of the current market. The trading volume of the latest K-line is only 270,500, far below the average level of MA50 ( 493,500) and MA100 ( 442,600).

Interpretation of funds: Price rising with decreasing volume is a signal that needs to be heeded. It indicates that the current increase lacks large-scale inflow of new funds, and is more likely a natural rebound after reduced market selling pressure, or driven by a small amount of funds. If the price is to achieve an effective breakout, it must be confirmed by an increase in trading volume; otherwise, the sustainability of the rise is in doubt.

Technical Summary:

The short-term trend is upward, but it is facing a key resistance test at 4625 (Bollinger upper band). The strength of the upward movement needs to be confirmed by an increase in volume (significant expansion of trading volume). The key support below is at 4530 (where EMA30 coincides with the Bollinger middle band); if it breaks below this level, the short-term bullish pattern will be disrupted.

2. Analysis of International Situation and Capital Flow

The technical aspects must operate within the macro environment, and the main factors currently affecting the market are as follows:

Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy:

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market currently widely expects that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle has ended and that it may begin cutting rates in 2024. This is the core macro-positive factor that has recently supported all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Market sentiment: This expectation has led to a rebound in global market risk appetite, with funds flowing out of conservative dollar assets in search of higher yield opportunities. The cryptocurrency market has benefited as a result, representing a potential source of incremental capital.

Regulatory Environment:

The positive spillover of Bitcoin spot ETF: The approval and successful issuance of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States have brought a huge traditional capital inflow to the entire crypto market. The market is strongly anticipating that Ethereum spot ETFs may also be approved in the future. This expectation is an important fundamental factor supporting the price of ETH.

Uncertainty: The stance of regulatory bodies (such as the US SEC) remains unknown, and any unexpected delays or rejections could have a short-term impact on the market.

Conclusion on Capital Flow:

The macro level provides potential, long-term logic for capital inflows (expectations of interest rate cuts, expectations of ETFs).

However, on a micro level, looking at the 4-hour trading volume, short-term funds have not entered the market in large amounts. The market is showing a "hesitant rise," and investors may be waiting for clearer signals (such as breaking through key resistance or significant news on the macro level).

3. Future Trend Forecasting and Strategy Recommendations

In summary, there are three possibilities:

Best-case scenario (strong breakout): Positive macroeconomic factors emerge (such as strong economic data reinforcing interest rate cut expectations), substantial capital inflows, and a significant increase in trading volume, with the ETH price breaking through 4625 and stabilizing. The subsequent targets are set at 4686 (previous support point) and even 4868 (previous high).

Neutral Situation (High-level Fluctuation): The price is fluctuating below the resistance level of 4625, exchanging time for space, waiting for further guidance from macro news or the financial aspect. The fluctuation range can refer to 4530 (support) - 4625 (resistance).

Worst-case scenario (pullback correction): If there is a sudden change in the international situation (such as an escalation of geopolitical conflicts or inflation data exceeding expectations leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance), or if the negative impact of the ETH spot ETF materializes, causing capital outflows, the price will retreat to test the 4530 support. If it breaks below this level, it may further decline to the 4433 (Bollinger lower band) area.

Summary of Suggestions:

For short-term traders:

Key level operation: It is not advisable to chase highs at the moment. You may wait for the price to pull back to the support area of 4530-4550 and stabilize before considering short-term long positions, or an effective breakthrough and stabilization at 4625 can serve as a right-side long signal.

Strict risk control: Be sure to set a stop loss. If the price drops below the support at 4530, be alert for a deeper correction.

For long-term investors:

Focus on the macro narrative: The long-term trend is still dominated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle and the progress of Ethereum ETFs. Any substantial positive news regarding interest rate cuts or ETFs could trigger a new bull market.

Buy on dips: The current price level is not an ideal long-term entry point. Consider gradually building positions during potential pullbacks (such as reaching 4530 or lower).

Summary:

The short-term technical structure of Ethereum is biased towards bullishness, but it is facing a critical resistance test, and there are no obvious signs of capital inflow, making the upward foundation not solid enough. Its future trend highly depends on whether it can secure incremental capital, as well as whether the international macro situation remains friendly. Please closely monitor the changes in trading volume and the offensive and defensive situation at the key level of 4625. #BTC战略储备市场影响 #XRP ETF上线 #美联储降息预期升温