An in-depth analysis of Ethereum's future trends based on the 4-hour candlestick chart of Ethereum, the current international situation, and most importantly, the flow of funds.

Please note that the following analysis is based on publicly available market information and technical analysis theories, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky, please make independent judgments and decisions cautiously.

Core Viewpoint

Currently, Ethereum is under short-term technical pressure with a bearish advantage. The price has fallen below key moving average support, and capital inflow has drastically shrunk, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Future trends should prioritize monitoring the defense of key support levels below, as the rebound heavily relies on improvements in the international macro situation and the reflow of capital.

1. In-depth technical analysis (based on the 4-hour chart you provided)

Price and Moving Average System (EMA):

The current price (,517.40) is significantly below all key short-term moving averages, including EMA5(4,535.16), EMA10(4,544.90), and EMA30(4,543.06). This is a typical bearish arrangement signal, indicating that the medium to short-term trend has turned bearish, and the market is in a downward channel.

All moving averages are converging around 4540 and starting to turn downwards, forming a strong resistance zone in this area. Any rebound that fails to break through this zone is merely a correction during the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands (BOLL):

The price is running below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (4,535.84) and is approaching the lower band (4,449.51). This is a technical signal indicating that the market is dominated by bears.

Key Judgment: The lower boundary (~4449) will become the most important short-term support level in the near term. If the price can stop falling and stabilize at this position, it may trigger a technical rebound. However, if it breaks down with volume, it may open up greater downward space.

MACD Indicator:

The MACD value is -4.07, with both the DIF line and DEA line below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram is negative. This clearly indicates that the current market momentum is very weak, the downtrend continues, and there are no signs of divergence or reversal.

Trading Volume

Volume Analysis (Vol): This is the most alarming signal in the current market. The latest period's volume is only 47,800, while its 5-day average volume (MA5) is 240,800, and the 10-day average volume (MA10) is 299,400.

Capital interpretation: The extreme shrinkage of trading volume (less than 1/5 of the average volume) is a very important signal. It indicates:

No buying pressure during a price decline: During the price drop, there is not enough capital willing to enter the market to support it, resulting in a lack of purchasing power.

Cautious sentiment is strong: Investors and traders are waiting on the sidelines for clearer directional signals.

Lack of liquidity: In a low trading volume environment, prices are more prone to significant fluctuations. Any slightly larger sell order could push the price down to a lower level.

Technical Summary:

The trend is clearly bearish, and the price is testing the lower support. 4449 (Bollinger lower band) is the lifeline. The recent strong resistance above is at 4535-4545 (moving average convergence area + Bollinger middle band). The market needs to break through this resistance range with volume to reverse the current weak pattern.

2. Analysis of International Situation and Capital Flow

The weakness in the technical aspects must be interpreted in the context of the macro environment. The main factors currently affecting the market are as follows:

Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy:

High interest rate environment persists: Major global central banks (especially the Federal Reserve) remain steadfast in maintaining high interest rates. This continues to drain liquidity from the capital markets, with cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, being the hardest hit.

Risk aversion: Concerns about global economic recession and geopolitical conflicts have led to a decrease in market risk appetite. Funds are flowing from risk assets such as cryptocurrencies to safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.

Regulatory environment:

Uncertainty remains the main theme: The U.S. SEC's definition of cryptocurrency, especially the status of Ethereum, remains unclear. There are huge doubts about whether the anticipated "Ethereum spot ETF" will be approved. This regulatory uncertainty severely suppresses the confidence of institutions and large capital to enter the market.

Capital flow conclusion:

Macroeconomic level: The funding environment is unfavorable. High interest rates and risk aversion sentiment lead to capital outflows from risk assets.

Microscopic level (from trading volume perspective): Capital inflow has dried up. The market lacks new funds, exhibiting a state of low-volume decline. This is a characteristic of a very weak market.

3. Future Trend Projection and Strategic Recommendations

Considering the overall technical indicators are bearish, the macroeconomic situation is unfavorable, and the capital is depleted, the market is facing significant pressure in the short term.

Exploring three possibilities:

High probability scenario (testing support): In the absence of sudden positive developments in the international situation, the price of ETH is likely to continue to test the key support at 4449 (Bollinger lower band). Whether it can hold will determine the short-term trend.

Neutral Scenario (Weak Volatility): The price is oscillating in the range of 4450 - 4540 with no significant volume, exchanging time for space, waiting for new directional signals from the macro level (such as important economic data, Federal Reserve speeches, etc.).

小probability scenario (反弹逆转): 需要满足两个条件:一宏观面出现重大favorable (such as 通胀超预期降橩引explode interest rate reduction 预期), and second, 资金面显色improve (trading volume is greatly amplified, that is, "amplification"). Only in this way can the volume break through the 4540 resistance area, and the volume can be twisted.

Here are your suggestions:

For short-term traders:

Stay cautious and act according to the trend: Before the price effectively breaks through 4540, the overall approach should be to sell on rallies or remain on the sidelines. The risk of counter-trend bottom fishing is extremely high.

Key position operation: If the price rebounds to the resistance zone near 4535-4545 and shows signs of stagnation (such as upper shadows, bearish candlestick patterns), it may be a good short opportunity. Place the stop loss above 4550.

Do not blindly buy the dip: Even near the support level of 4449, you should wait for clear signs of a bottom (such as long lower shadows, bullish engulfing patterns, etc.) along with accompanying trading volume before considering a light long position.

For long-term investors:

Be patient: The current market environment is not suitable for large-scale positions. One should patiently wait for a certain macro-level shift to occur (such as the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates).

Phased Layout: If you are optimistic about the long-term value of Ethereum, you may consider gradually laying out in small amounts in a phased manner during market panic and continuous price declines (for example, after effectively breaking below 4400).

Summary:

The short-term trend of Ethereum is very weak, with a bearish technical arrangement, and most importantly, there is a significant outflow of funds, leaving the market without buyers. Before there is a fundamental improvement in the international macro situation and regulatory environment, it is difficult for the market to spontaneously form a strong rebound. Please prioritize risk awareness, protect your principal, and patiently wait for the increase in trading volume and the outcomes of key support and resistance levels before making decisions. #美联储降息25个基点 #BTC战略储备市场影响