Last night, the US stock market set the third largest intraday volume record since 2008, which was likely caused by the Japanese Central Bank's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. The idea of raising interest rates is still fresh in everyone's mind after last year's 8.5 disaster, and the emotions still linger!

However, there shouldn't be any disasters in this round of interest rate hikes, because the current environment is different from that time. The core logic back then was that the interest rate hikes increased the return on the local currency, attracting funds back to Japan. Originally, the arbitrage funds borrowed in low-interest yen that were invested in overseas stock markets or cryptocurrencies were forced to withdraw, creating selling pressure on risky markets in the short term.

Then this time should be quite interesting. In October, the US is lowering interest rates while raising them. This is another battle of bulls and bears, and it is highly likely that October will be a state of mutual offset. Although your rate hike allows funds to flow back, our rate cut policy is easing. Speaking of which, life is truly an alternative; everyone is easing, yet it is tightening. Now, whether it is on the surface or behind the scenes, there is a quiet easing happening. Next, the A-shares should also improve for a while, and China and the US were also having a long phone call and talks last night!

Then I noticed that courier companies like SF Express and Jitu are all raising their prices. Inflation might really be coming, and things will get better here in big A. Some of you doing实体生意 will also do better, and ordinary people will be able to live a better life again. In the past two years, it has been difficult to make money in实体, and some fans should know that I have invested in a few实体 and they are all losing money!

Alright, let's not digress too much and get back to discussing the market. Of course, the views are primarily for discussion and should not be taken as advice!

Let's first talk about the cycle anchoring: the current timeline can basically be locked in at the fourth quarter of 2025, which is the peak interval of the Bitcoin big cycle. Historical patterns show that the peak occurs 20 months after the halving, and with this round being boosted by ETFs and institutional allocations, the bull market will extend a bit compared to 2017 and 2021. (I mentioned before that I feel the peak will be around 130,000 or it might not even exceed 130,000.)

1️⃣Macro Liquidity
The interest rate cut channel has indeed released liquidity into the market, but the hidden concern is: high debt pressure. The market switches back and forth between "risk aversion" and "speculation". Once the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds increase again, funds may flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, and the easing benefits enjoyed by crypto assets may not last long.

2️⃣Bubble Risk
AI + RWA + Crypto is the current main narrative, and the enthusiasm for investment is high, but the situation of pre-valuation and overheating cannot be ignored. Especially in the altcoin track, once the big brothers are shaken or reversed, projects with weak fundamentals often become the first wave of liquidated chips.

3️⃣Shanzhai Window Period
There are indeed only two months left for altcoin opportunities. In the second half of the bull market, large funds will only hold onto quality assets tightly, and altcoins can only rely on short-term speculation. Once Bitcoin enters the divergence zone, the altcoin market will be the first to cool down. In other words, Q4 2025 is the "last altcoin carnival," but it will not be a general rise; rather, it will be a strong differentiation.

Then the suggestion is what I mentioned to you guys in the Iron Fans group, don’t think about long-term positions for now, focus on playing in the jungle instead. For example, if a piece of news is going to drive a certain sector, let's take a recent example: Zhao hinted at a return, and the concepts related to Zhao have been hyped up these days. On that day, I said that whether he comes back or not is not important to us; what matters is this wave of momentum!

I have also listed some CZ-related ones for you. In three days, at most, they increased by seventy to eighty points, and at least by twenty to thirty points. If you really have limited interpretation of the news, then look for some large-cap leaders to observe. You won't lose much and you won't earn much; it's relatively stable. #bnb
#比特币 # ETH #BNB