【BTC & ETH】❤️September 21st technical fluctuations are forming a bottom! Bitcoin holds the key support at $115,500, while Ethereum is looking for direction around $4,470❤️

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📊 After the interest rate cut, the adjustment is slowing down, and market sentiment is gradually recovering 📈
BTC Market Overview ( as of September 21, 2025 ) Current BTC Price: $115,572
📊 Today's change: -0.13% ( -155 USD )
📈 ETH Market Overview ( as of September 21, 2025 ) Current ETH Price: $4,472
📊 Today's Change: -0.22% ( -10 USD )
After experiencing a deep pullback yesterday, the market today is showing a clear trend of consolidating at the bottom. Bitcoin has found key technical support around $115,572, with the decline narrowing to -0.13%, demonstrating strong defensive resilience. Ethereum is also stabilizing at the $4,472 level, with a mild drop of -0.22% indicating that selling pressure is gradually easing.
The technical adjustment after the interest rate cut has been digested as expected, and market sentiment is beginning to shift from panic to rational observation.
🔍 In-depth analysis of today's market drivers
1. The support of technology is showing effectiveness, and bottom-fishing funds are beginning to tentatively enter the market.
🎯Support level shows strong performance: BTC received strong buying support near the key support level of $115,500, quickly rebounding after hitting a daily low of $115,558, with a significant increase in trading volume in the support area to $680 million, indicating that institutional funds are starting to tentatively build positions. The technical indicator RSI has risen from 38 yesterday to 42, showing initial signs of oversold rebound. Although the MACD indicator is still in the negative zone, the downward momentum has clearly weakened, and a bottom divergence pattern is forming. Market microstructure improvement: Large transfer activities have decreased by 28%, indicating that the selling pressure from large holders has eased. The number of active addresses on the chain remains stable at 850,000, with basic activity levels maintaining health. The increase in BTC reserves on exchanges has slowed, significantly reducing new selling pressure. The futures funding rate has risen from -0.02% to -0.008%, and short-selling sentiment is beginning to ease.
2. ETH has shown relative stability, and the development of the Layer 2 ecosystem provides fundamental support.
📈Positive signals in the Ethereum ecosystem: The daily trading volume of Arbitrum and Optimism hits a new high for September, with Layer 2 adoption continuously increasing. The amount of ETH staked on the Ethereum beacon chain has surpassed 32 million, with a staking rate of 26.5%. The total locked value (TVL) in DeFi remains stable at $62 billion, indicating a solid ecological foundation. The upcoming Pectra upgrade is expected to support medium- to long-term prices. ETH/BTC ratio stabilizes: The ETH/BTC ratio finds support at the 0.0387 level, and the relative value begins to repair. Institutional interest in ETH allocation is rising again, and the attractiveness of staking returns is increasing. Although Ethereum ETFs have performed moderately, there has not been a significant redemption from institutional holdings. The technical upgrade path is clear, providing certainty for long-term investments.
3. The Federal Reserve's management of interest rate cut expectations is becoming more rational, and the market is recalibrating valuations.
🚀Policy expectations rebalanced: CME FedWatch shows a stable 65% probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, with market expectations adjusting from a total rate cut of 75 basis points in 2025 to 50 basis points. Powell's "data-dependent" statement provides clearer policy guidance for the market. Inflation expectations remain stable, creating a relatively friendly macro environment for risk assets. Liquidity environment assessment: The USD index oscillates between 97.5-98.0, with reduced risk-averse sentiment. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizes around 4.12%, alleviating pressure in the bond market. The degree of divergence in global central bank policies has decreased, leading to more stable capital flows. Institutional cash allocation remains high, providing ammunition for future market entry. 4. ETF fund flows show signs of marginal improvement.
📊 Positive changes in fund flows: The daily outflow scale of BTC ETF decreased from $243 million to $85 million, significantly reducing outflow pressure. BlackRock's IBIT regained a net inflow of $21 million, and institutional confidence is starting to recover. Fidelity's FBTC outflow scale narrowed sharply from $187 million to $62 million. Grayscale's GBTC outflow trend has slowed, and traditional fund companies' reallocation behaviors are becoming more rational. ETH ETF performance remains stable: The daily outflow scale of the Ethereum ETF is controlled at $32 million, significantly improved from the previous period. The long-term allocation logic of institutions regarding ETH has not fundamentally changed. Staking yields and upgrade expectations provide differentiated appeal for ETH ETF. The clarification of the regulatory environment helps sustain institutional capital inflows. 5. Market sentiment is recovering, with the Fear and Greed Index rising to neutral territory.
📊Sentiment Indicator Improvement: The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose from 48 yesterday to 49, returning to neutral territory. Social media sentiment indicators show a decrease in FUD sentiment and an increase in rational discussions. Google searches for "Bitcoin price" have decreased by 15%, cooling down the chase for rising prices and panic selling. The implied volatility in the options market has retreated, alleviating extreme panic sentiment. Changes in funding characteristics: The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remains stable at $3.95 trillion, with the trend of market cap loss slowing down. The supply of stablecoins has slightly increased by 0.2%, and new capital is starting to enter the market. Cash flow into DeFi protocols has turned positive, and on-chain activity remains healthy. The derivatives market's open interest has stabilized, with no significant shrinkage in market participation.
6. Altcoins follow the correction, and the sector rotation characteristic is obvious.
💰Sector performance diverges: Layer 1 tokens' decline narrows to 2-3%, market sell-off pressure eases, the DeFi sector stabilizes following ETH's trend, and some quality projects begin to attract funding. AI concept tokens perform relatively strong, and sector rotation effects start to show. Infrastructure projects receive institutional favor, highlighting long-term allocation value.
⚙️ Technical Analysis Update
🔻 BTC Support and Resistance Analysis: Support Level:
First support level: $115,500 ( key technical support, successfully tested today )
Second support level: $115,000 ( important psychological barrier )
Third support level: $114,500 ( previous consolidation area lower edge ) key support level: $114,000 ( strong support baseline )
Resistance level:
First resistance level: $116,000 ( recently lost support, recovery is quite difficult )
Second resistance level: $116,500 ( short-term technical resistance )
Third resistance level: $117,000 ( Important technical resistance ) Key resistance level: $117,500 ( Previous high resistance )
🔺 ETH Support and Resistance Level Analysis:
Support level:
First support level: $4,450 ( Key support tested today )
Second support level: $4,350 ( Important technical support )
Third support level: $4,250 ( previous low support )
Key support level: $4,150 ( strong support area )
Resistance level:
First resistance level: $4,520 ( recent resistance level )
Second resistance level: $4,580
( short-term rebound target )
Third resistance level: $4,650 ( loses support turns into resistance ) strong resistance: $4,750 ( important technical resistance )
🧭 Trend Prediction and Probability Analysis
BTC Price Prediction: Range Consolidation Scenario ( Probability 45% )
⚖️The fluctuation range of $115,000 - $116,500 is triggered by key support stabilizing, market sentiment recovering, and technical indicators showing oversold mild rebound scenarios ( probability 35% )
📈The rebound target is $116,500 - $117,200. Trigger factors include improved ETF capital inflows, stable macro environment, and continued technical adjustments in a deep correction scenario. ( probability 20% )
📉 Adjusting target $114,000 - $115,000 Trigger factors: external shocks, large ETF outflows, failure of technical support. ETH trend prediction: follow BTC stabilization scenario. ( probability 40% ).
⚖️Stabilization range $4,350 - $4,550 triggering factors Layer2 ecological development, staking yield attractiveness, technology upgrade expectations relatively strong repair scenario ( probability 35% )
📈Fix target $4,550 - $4,700 triggering factors ETH/BTC ratio correction, DeFi recovery, institutional allocation return continues weak scenario ( probability 25% )
📉 The weak range of $4,200 - $4,400 is triggered by relatively weak continuation factors, intensified ETF outflows, and slow ecological development.
💡 Operation Suggestions
🎯 BTC Operation Strategy ( Recommended Index: ⭐⭐⭐)
Pay attention to the range of 115,000-115,500 US dollars for potential gradual accumulation.
🎯 ETH Operating Strategy ( Recommendation Index: ⭐⭐)
Cautiously optimistic, a moderate allocation can be made in the range of $4,400-$4,500.
📅 Market outlook focuses on whether $115,500 can stabilize in the near term, and whether ETF fund flows continue to improve. The mid-term trend's technical adjustments are nearing their end, and a new round of increases is expected in the fourth quarter. Trading emphasis should be on capturing opportunities within the fluctuation range, with patience required to confirm the trend. Risk reminder: changes in the external macro environment may bring new volatility. Long-term outlook remains sound based on fundamental logic, with the current adjustment viewed as a healthy technical correction.
🎊 Special Attention: The consolidation is ongoing, and it's a rational time for allocation! Today's market performance completely aligns with technical analysis expectations! After experiencing a deep correction yesterday, BTC and ETH found buying support at key technical support levels, significantly narrowing the decline, demonstrating strong defensive resilience. This is a typical characteristic of a healthy market adjustment. The current technical consolidation offers investors a rare opportunity for allocation:
First, the valuation has returned to a reasonable range.
Second, the panic sentiment has been fully released.
Thirdly, the technical indicators have entered the oversold rebound zone. Although there may still be fluctuations in the short term, the medium to long-term trend remains positive.
Investment advice: Stay patient and allocate rationally. We are currently in a technical bottoming phase, with the $115,000-$116,000 range being the golden allocation area for BTC, and $4,400-$4,500 being the reasonable allocation price for ETH. It is recommended to adopt a phased buying strategy, strictly controlling risks, and preparing for the upcoming fourth quarter market. Remember, excellent investors always remain calm during market panic and find opportunities during adjustments!