The XRP ecosystem is at a critical moment, with several important developments attracting attention.

First, the approval for the XRP spot ETF has entered a critical window. Industry analysis predicts that the approval results may be announced in mid to late October 2025, with a probability of approval as high as 90%-95%. If approved, it is expected to attract approximately $8 billion in capital inflow, with well-known institutions such as Grayscale and Franklin Templeton potentially becoming the first issuers.

At the same time, Rex-Osprey has proactively launched a dual-asset ETF substitute of XRP+DOGE in the form of a registered investment company to bypass traditional approval processes, although its tax efficiency is relatively low. This move reflects the urgent demand in the market for XRP-related investment products.

However, there is a clear divergence of attitudes between institutional investors and large holders. Galaxy Digital recently increased its holdings of XRP worth $34.4 million, while during the same period, some large addresses sold off approximately $120 million worth of XRP, indicating a significant divide in the market.

From a technical perspective, XRP is currently fluctuating between the price range of $3.00 to $3.12, with $3.00 being a significant support level and $3.20 acting as a key resistance level. In the short term, if it can stabilize above $3.13, it may trigger a new round of increases; however, if it falls below $3.02, it could pull back to around $2.75.

In terms of practical applications, Ripple's cross-border payment solution has achieved a market share of 7.3% in interbank settlements in the EMEA region, showing significant year-on-year growth. Senior officials in the UK government have also expressed support for incorporating XRP into the international clearing system, which provides strong backing for the long-term development of XRP.

In addition, the XRP Ledger is continuously upgrading its smart contract capabilities to enhance compatibility with mainstream DeFi protocols. The team has also proactively adjusted the liquidity of the RLUSD stablecoin, demonstrating a commitment to the healthy development of the ecosystem.

Data from the options market shows that traders hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards XRP breaking through $3 in the short term, with the most active call options concentrated around the $3.30 strike price.

Overall, the upcoming ETF approval results will be a key factor influencing the short-term trend of XRP. The current price is in a sensitive range, with the upper target for bulls at $3.20-$3.30, while the important support area is at $3.00-$2.75. Although the improved regulatory environment and institutional participation provide mid-term support for XRP, the reduction in holdings by large investors and the divergence signals in technical indicators also caution investors to be wary of potential volatility risks.