#永续合约DEX赛道之争# Based on multi-timeframe Technical Analysis, BTC currently shows a very obvious short positions trend characteristic: from the perspective of larger timeframes, all levels of moving average systems are completely in a bearish arrangement, with prices continuously running below the short-term moving averages. At the same time, the MACD indicator has formed a clear death cross at a high level, with green bars continuously expanding, indicating that medium to long-term downward pressure has fully accumulated.

On the daily chart, BTC has recorded a bearish candle for the third consecutive trading day. During this period, the trading volume significantly shrank during the brief uptick, which further confirms that the current market is dominated by short positions, and the buying power is insufficient for a rebound. Turning to shorter time frames, the 1-hour candlestick chart shows that during the continuous decline, a candlestick with a long lower shadow formed at the 111000 level, indicating that some funds are entering for low absorption at this price point. The short-term selling pressure has been alleviated to some extent, but this signal only constitutes a local support point and has not changed the overall downward trend.

Pay attention to ETH, as the trend direction behind its wide fluctuations is also clearly discernible: on one hand, the recent high and low points have shown a stepped downward trend, and a descending channel structure has been established; on the other hand, important support levels that have been validated multiple times have been continuously breached and have not been effectively recovered, indicating that short positions still dominate the market. In the future, it is necessary to be aware that prices may enter a rapid decline phase after the support fails.

Overall, both major mainstream cryptocurrencies are currently in a weak pattern dominated by short positions. Although there is some sporadic buying support in the short term, which has led to a slight weakening of the downward momentum, there are no clear reversal signals such as the moving averages turning, or a volume bullish engulfing pattern for the bearish candles, whether in the case of BTC's volume-price divergence or ETH's channel breakdown. The likelihood of a trend reversal in the short term is low.

Technical position reference:
It is advisable to remain cautious about short positions in the BTC range of 113000-113500, with a target range near 111500-111300;
Observe ETH in the range of 4220-4240, with a downward target range near 4100-4080.