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Details: ht
The American financial sector is at a critical juncture, facing multiple challenges and changes that are testing the Fed's decision-making ability and independence.
First of all, the Fed is discussing significant reforms to interest rate tools internally. There are suggestions to abandon the traditional federal funds rate in favor of the Treasury collateralized overnight rate. This proposal has sparked widespread attention in the market regarding potential adjustments to the monetary policy framework.
At the same time, the debate about interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly heated. Some hardliners warn that if the Fed does not cut rates quickly, it may endanger the economy. However, there are also voices within the Fed calling for caution, warning against hasty and consecutive rate cuts. Currently, the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in October.
In the political arena, the independence of the Fed is facing challenges. Some heavyweight figures in the financial sector have publicly expressed opposition to political interference in the appointment of the Fed Chairman. At the same time, the Fed's emergency policy tools have also become the focus of political gamesmanship, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank.
In terms of the economy, inflationary pressures still exist, with most consumer goods prices rising above the Fed's target of 2%. This may limit the room for monetary policy easing. At the same time, U.S. stock market valuations are considered to be at a high level, with several market indicators showing possible bubble risks.
In addition, short-term funding is under pressure, and the market is concerned about potential liquidity tightness at the end of the quarter. This is reflected in the massive sell-off of Fed interest rate futures.
Looking ahead, some financial institutions are optimistic about gold, expecting the price to possibly reach $4,050 by next year. However, there are also Wall Street figures questioning the credibility of the economic data released by the U.S. government, which may increase market uncertainty.
Overall, the Fed is facing multiple challenges such as policy adjustments, economic pressures, and political influences, and its decisions will have a profound impact on global financial markets.