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The Genius Who Proved Everyone Wrong: Inside the Monty Hall Controversy
I still remember when I first stumbled across the infamous Monty Hall problem - my brain couldn't wrap around it either. But unlike thousands of supposedly "educated" men, at least I wasn't arrogant enough to send hate mail to the woman who got it right.
September 1990. That's when all hell broke loose for me. I'd addressed a seemingly simple problem in my column, not realizing I was about to become the target of academic masculinity at its most fragile.
The setup? Three doors. One car. Two goats. You pick a door. The host shows you a goat behind another door. Should you switch your choice?
"Yes, you should switch," I wrote.
And then the letters came flooding in - over 10,000 of them! Nearly a thousand PhDs telling me, a woman with an IQ of 228, that I was wrong. The smugness was suffocating.
"You completely messed up!" they wrote. "You are that goat (fool)!"
My personal favorite? "Perhaps women view mathematical problems differently than men." Translation: "Your lady brain can't do math properly."
The thing is, I wasn't wrong. The probability isn't 50/50 after the host reveals a goat. If you initially pick the car (1/3 chance), switching loses. But if you initially pick a goat (2/3 chance), switching wins. Therefore, switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning - DOUBLE the odds of staying put.
MIT's computer simulations confirmed it. Even MythBusters proved it. Yet these "brilliant" academics couldn't see past their own biases. Some eventually apologized, but the damage was done.
People struggle with this problem because they reset probabilities mid-problem and can't grasp that the host's actions change everything. The three-door setup almost seems too simple, making it paradoxically difficult.
Growing up with my brain wasn't easy. At 10, I was memorizing entire books and reading all 24 volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica while my peers were playing hopscotch. Yet I still dropped out of university to support my family's business - genius doesn't pay bills.
My column for Parade was my dream job, but this controversy thrust me into a spotlight I never asked for - a female intellectual being torn apart by men who couldn't bear being wrong.
The math doesn't lie. I stood my ground against criticism because truth matters more than ego. Something many crypto traders should learn before the next market correction hits them...
People still talk about the Monty Hall problem decades later. Not because probability theory is particularly sexy, but because it perfectly illustrates how our intuition can lead us astray - just like in trading markets where emotional decisions usually end in disaster.
Smart doesn't always mean right. But in this case, I was both.