#币安HODLer空投FF# The August PCE inflation data to be released on Friday is highly anticipated by the Fed, with market analysts expecting the overall PCE annual rate to rise to 2.7%, while the core PCE is expected to remain at 2.9%.

Recent economic data has shown a complex situation. On one hand, the impact of tariffs has led to a gradual rise in commodity prices, while on the other hand, the rebound in service costs has raised concerns among decision-makers. Fed officials are closely monitoring various signals of inflation persistence. The latest economic indicators include an upward revision of GDP, a decrease in unemployment claims, and a significant 20% increase in new home sales, all of which indicate that economic resilience remains strong, potentially reducing the necessity for an immediate rate cut. Market expectations for a rate cut in October have been adjusted from a previous 92% probability to 85.5%.

In the precious metals market, gold is undergoing a technical adjustment. This week, the gold price failed to break through the psychological barrier of 3800 US dollars, and after the daily relative strength index (RSI) showed signs of being overbought, the price retreated to around 3744 US dollars.

Analysts believe that if the upcoming PCE data exceeds expectations, it could trigger a sell-off, causing gold prices to pull back to the support range of 3650-3600 dollars. Conversely, if gold prices can break through the resistance level of 3752 dollars, they may challenge the historical high of 3790 dollars again.

Goldman Sachs economists have stated that the effects of tariffs may delay the peak of inflation until December of this year, potentially reaching 3.2%, but they expect inflation to return to a downward trajectory by 2026.

Currently, the market has differing views on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and the final policy direction will largely depend on the inflation data and employment market performance over the next three months.

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