🦇Batman Analysis on Macroeconomic Data

There is no sign of lasting acceleration in Core PCE, and if these figures include rounding, the market will like it even more. These data point more to temporary reflections of cost shocks rather than sustained demand-driven inflationary pressure.

Consumption continues to remain strong. This confirms that the resilience on the growth side is real-GDP’s strength was no coincidence. Consumers are still spending, supported by income growth. This suggests an economy capable of absorbing the price pressures created by Trump’s tariffs without consumer demand collapsing.

The Fed cut rates by 25bp this month, citing labor market softening. These data deliver the message: “the economy is alive, inflation is sticky but not accelerating.” Core stability seems to confirm that Trump’s shocks are more like temporary cost pressures.

In other words, the scenario of “slow but continued rate cuts” remains intact. The economy is not carrying a recession risk. Trump’s tariffs appear to have created short-term inflation pressure, not long-term.

I remain loyal to my “soft landing” scenario and the U.S. economy is still in a Goldilocks position!