#PCE指标即将公布# Recently released U.S. economic data presents a peculiar contradictory state, which can be described as "the dual effect of economic worries and policy easing." On one hand, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell short of expectations, intensifying market concerns about an economic recession; on the other hand, inflation expectation data showed a comprehensive downward trend. Particularly noteworthy is that long-term inflation expectations dropped significantly from 3.9% to 3.7%, undoubtedly creating some room for adjustment in the Fed's tightening policy.

On the surface, consumers' pessimism about the economic outlook should constitute a bearish factor for the market, but financial markets interpret this situation as a bullish signal for assets like gold, silver, and crude oil. The core of this reverse logic lies in the market's expectation that the Fed may tend to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance when weighing the "risks of economic slowdown" against the "residual pressures of inflation." The cooling of long-term inflation expectations provides strong arguments for decision-makers supporting interest rate cuts, while the collapse of consumer confidence further undermines the Fed's determination to maintain its current policy stance.

Ultimately, this set of economic data complicates the Fed's policy choices, while allowing market participants to successfully capture investment opportunities arising from emotional fluctuations in the "poor economic fundamentals" versus "expectations of policy easing" reverse logic.
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