I judge that the peak of this round $BTC cycle is likely to occur in this quarter, similar to 2013, 2017, and 2021, more probably in November or December, and it won't drag on until Christmas. Refer to two indicators.

The first is "Maiya Multiplier", which is the current price ÷ MA200. Since 2021, the multiplier at each peak has generally been around 1.5, after which there is usually a pullback of more than 20%. MA200 represents the average cost of investors over the past 200 days, currently around 106,000, increasing by about 150 each day. If we see a peak this quarter, I expect the multiplier to be between 1.5 and 1.6, meaning that when MA200 rises to around 114,000, the Bitcoin peak area will be around 171,000 to 182,000.
The second is the quarterly increase multiple (quarterly highest price ÷ opening price). Since 2020, the quarters with the most significant increase in Bitcoin are mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q4. In Q1 2023, Bitcoin recovered from the bear market of 2022, reaching a high of 31,000, and then consolidated for 6 months; in Q1 2024, it broke the previous high before the halving, reaching 73,777, at which point the Meiya multiple reached 1.85, with a quarterly increase of 74%, resulting in substantial short-term profits, and then entering a long period of consolidation. By December 2024, Bitcoin reached 108,300, and in September of this year, it corrected to 108,600, with a consolidation period lasting 9 months, far exceeding the cycles of 2023 and 2024. It can also be observed that after 2021, after Bitcoin returned to its normal value, the quarterly highest price ÷ opening price rarely exceeds 2, with strong quarters being mainly Q1 and Q4, also indicating that Bitcoin shows significant seasonality. The increase in the first three quarters of this year was basically poor, so Q4 is likely to make up for it, with the multiple likely between 1.5 and 1.7.
Based on the combination of two sets of indicators, I believe the top of this round may be around $150,000. Therefore, the strategy is to start reducing positions in batches from the range of $130,000 to $150,000, gradually locking in profits while leaving room to respond to fluctuations at the top. #打榜优质内容