I had quite a tiring weekend, went back to my hometown to take care of some matters. When I got home in the evening, I looked at the Candlestick chart and took profit on half of the short-term long order I entered on Friday evening, leaving the profits to continue running.

Sitting in front of the computer, reflecting on the experiences of the past period, it feels like this year has really passed quickly. Unconsciously, there are less than 70 days left until the end of 25 years. This year, the company's business hasn't been good. After three quarters, half of the stores have reported losses. Coupled with the impact of the Xibei incident, it is expected that by the end of the year, it should be in vain.

Looking at the crypto world over here, it was all good before the National Day holiday, and BTC surprisingly reached a new high. After returning from the holiday, there was a massive drop on October 11, and the profits from the main positions and altcoins have also retraced significantly. If you say you have no worries or concerns at all, that must be a lie. However, having stayed in this circle for a long time, experiencing countless ups and downs and seeing all sorts of situations, my immunity has become relatively strong.

The cryptocurrency world has indeed changed in 2025. As an old investor, I can't help but sigh at how the capital is harvesting the investors with increasingly blatant and shameless tactics. The other day in my subscription update, I paired it with a picture of a certain child of a certain prominent figure. A friend asked me what it meant. Pay more attention to the news; this little guy should have entered the ranks of the richest post-2000s through the harvesting of 1011, and he even bought a yacht!

All of this is thanks to his father, Comrade Trump. By 2025, this narcissistic and restless beautiful country's president, who never plays by the rules, is expected to have led his family to harvest over $10 billion in wealth from the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market. How much liquidity from altcoins has been drained by $10 billion? For players in the cryptocurrency market, it truly applies to the saying, success comes from Trump, and failure also comes from Trump.

A few days ago, it was mentioned that Taco trading has become very popular recently. Have you heard of it? This is a slang that has emerged in the Wall Street circle, specifically describing a crazy script that puts the global market on a "roller coaster".

Taco originally refers to a Mexican wrap, but in the financial field, it is a nonsensical new term abbreviation, the full name is "Trump Always Chickens Out", which translates to Chinese as "特朗普总在最后关头怂了", and in Cantonese, it translates to "只七头次次临尾缩沙".

This meme was first conceived by a columnist from the Financial Times, used to mock that familiar formula and familiar taste. I have整理了一些外媒的资料 to discuss with everyone whether TACO trading is a task that ordinary people can directly copy or a potential pitfall that may explode at any time. If you understand it, you might gain a clearer perspective on this magical and complex market.

The entire TACO trading strategy process is mainly divided into four steps:

Step one: Make a strong statement. Trump suddenly fired shots on social media, saying he would impose a hefty tariff on someone. (Trade: quickly follow up with a short-term short order)

Step 2: The market is scared. The global market falls in response, turning a sea of green, and everyone is scared and quickly sells off. (Trading: gradually completing chip harvesting and take profit to exit.)

Step three: God reversal. A few days later, he casually says, "Let’s put this aside for now" or "Conditions are negotiable," or simply stops responding altogether. (Trading: Ambush chips for long order trading)

Step 4: Market Frenzy. Alarm lifted! The stock market immediately makes a V-shaped reversal; it fell hard before, now it bounces high. (Trading: Gradually complete chip unloading and take profit to exit.)

This "extreme pressure" tactic of "raising high and gently putting down" is just like the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf." And the so-called "Taco traders" are the "smart ones" who have figured out this script - they buy at the bottom when the market is scared half to death, and then leisurely sell when the storm has passed.

Looking back, how many times have we experienced this "roller coaster" market due to tariffs or small essays this year? You might think this is a joke, but if you take a serious look, we've already been on various big and small roller coasters several times, and they usually happen on weekends during Asian hours or on Fridays during American hours.

Take the recent crash in October 2021 as an example, the same tariff script was foolishly replayed. The market was filled with panic, and blood flowed like a river overnight, but two days later, mainstream cryptocurrencies returned to their original prices. Although compared to the market in the first half of the year, the overall decline of the financial market in October was not as panicked as in the first half of the year, the S&P 500 fell 2.6% in one day, and the real decline of BTC was less than 8%. In fact, some savvy players understood the pattern and made a lot of money.

But in the relatively loosely regulated cryptocurrency sphere, the main players smartly seized this rare opportunity and cleared out 99% of the contracts and staked chips held by altcoin players, I believe that this black swan scenario of clearing 1x contracts is something over 80% of the old investors would never imagine. Are you saying this isn't a pre-designed strangulation plan? The top capital sharks collaborating to manipulate the market wouldn't know? I would never believe that.

Why can this routine be repeated over and over? Why will most financial markets quickly recover this time? Is there smart money in the market that has figured out the rules? What is the logic behind it? In my personal opinion, there may be three reasons:

1. Retail investors can also grow, and Wall Street is full of savvy people. As for the crypto market, during the first "wolf is coming", everyone really believed it, and the panic index directly shot up to 18 in April. When the wolf howled again in November, the panic index only reached a maximum of 22. What does this indicate? It indeed shows that a considerable portion of players have become "smarter" and are not so easily manipulated. Many smart money views this drop as a "discount promotion", just waiting for you to call out so they can jump in, quickly complete short-term bottom fishing, and profit before exiting.

2. The team behind Chuan Jianguo has also seen the reality. The president can make tough statements just by speaking, but if the tariff policy is really to be implemented, the interests and troubles involved are too great. The financial issues within the beautiful country, the efficiency of various departments, along with the government shutdown, all these worries are enough for the president to deal with. Therefore, tough talk is more of a bargaining chip at the negotiation table rather than a real bomb to overturn the table.

3. The big boss of the Great Heavenly Dynasty won't indulge you and certainly won't follow your script. Over here, Trump is exerting extreme pressure, but on the other side, East University remains quite calm. The spokesperson from East University keeps repeating the same few sentences: "We don’t want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight." This calm attitude, instead, reassures the market and prevents the amplification of panic.

Will such a script appear again in the future? Can we plan for the next sudden event based on this TACO trading pattern? Let's continue our discussion tomorrow, combining it with the cycles of bull and bear market transitions ☕
#降息 #加密市场回调