Continuing to discuss the issues with the previous dynamic TACO trading strategy, I see some KOLs promoting the idea of directly "copying the homework" to layout wealth codes. However, in the upcoming time period, I personally believe that if you blindly follow this approach of buying the dip due to the big dump caused by news from Chuan Jianguo, the risks could be greater than you can imagine.

1. Currently in the market, whether it's the price of U.S. stocks or BTC, it is already different from previous times. Compared to April and May in the first half of the year, especially BTC, ETH, and technology stocks in the U.S. market, they have all risen significantly and are at historical highs. Frankly speaking, the market's buying volume "safety cushion" has thinned, and it could easily experience another fall of the same magnitude due to market inertia.

2. The four-year bull-bear transition cycle has arrived, and there are obvious divergences in the market. Unknowingly, during the 1000 days from 2022 to 2025, BTC has surged 8 times. Players who entered the market in August last year and in April and May this year are basically making money. However, this "floating profit" is the least reliable; unlike long-term holders who have faith, their first reaction to any disturbance is to "sell and run, securing their profits." Additionally, the number of market participants leaning towards shorting is increasing, and the sentiment from the expiration of the four-year cycle is stacking up. As soon as there is a daily pullback of more than 5%, a bunch of people will pop up shouting that the bear is here, and the shorting pressure will be strong. During these sensitive phases, it is very likely to lead to a cascade, falling much faster than expected.

3. I personally think it is the most unpredictable and also the most deadly: what if this time the "wolf" really comes? This person, Trump, is notorious for not playing by the rules. Who can guarantee 100% that he won't really raise tariffs next time? If the bet is wrong, those funds that entered based on the "Taco trading" logic might face irreversible consequences.

Objectively speaking, the term "Taco trading" provides us with a new perspective to understand this bizarre market. It tells us that the market is also a living entity that learns and evolves. However, this does not mean we can afford to be careless and treat speculation as investment. For us ordinary players, the significance of understanding this phenomenon lies in:

The closer we get to moments of market divergence, the more we must keep a clear mind and have a sense of respect for market risks. We should understand that many times the rise and fall of the market is a battle between emotions and expectations, and it does not necessarily indicate that there is a problem with the fundamentals. Don't always try to imitate those short-term masters who take risks; you only see them making profits, but you don't see the times they get hurt.

Independent thinking is more important than anything else. In this age of overwhelming information, having your own independent judgment is always more reliable than believing in any "wealth code". After all, there are never any free "Tacos" at the market's table.

But after experiencing the big dump of 1011, the main concern for most players is no longer whether there will be a trade war or an economic recession; they might be more interested in knowing whether this round of the bull market has ended or if there is still a possibility of a altcoin season.

This time, the big dump of altcoins caught many players holding altcoins completely off guard. Most people have reached the point where they are too lazy to buy the dip and dare not do so. Last Friday's second pullback solidified more players' bearish mindset. Undeniably, from the news perspective, the expectations for two interest rate cuts this year have already been digested by the market in advance. The attitude has also shifted from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE). The market is not without favorable factors; it's just that the favorable factors visible in the short term have all been priced in, while the long-term benefits are still not obvious. Coupled with the magnified tariff issues, retail investors in the market have lost direction, and BTC's high-level fall indeed shows a downward trend from the top.

But please rest assured, even if it really is a bull to bear transition now, the current market rebound is not a reversal. The BTC range of 11.8-12 and the ETH range of 4300-4500 are likely to appear in front of you again. If you are afraid of high position risks and want to withdraw, there are still opportunities.

For me personally, whether from the continued deduction of fundamentals or from the analysis of K-line patterns, I still believe that we will continue to reach new ATHs. The gradual emergence of a slow bull market is already evident, and I don't want to list all the specific reasons, after all, there are a thousand Hamlets in a thousand people's eyes.

The reason I dare to publicly express these views, rather than giving vague directions, is that I have confidence in my own judgments and can take responsibility for my own accounts. Since withdrawing from a certain account a few days ago, I have realized some profits from my overall position, restoring 24% of my capital. I will wait for the right timing in November to make some adjustments, trying to maintain around 30% of my available position. I believe this attack and defense holding ratio should be able to cope with most of the events that will occur next.

I know many friends miss that feeling of being pushed back in 2021, but unfortunately, it hasn't come this year. The market has been moving forward three steps and then looking back to kill the bulls, moving back two steps and then looking back to attack the bears, with liquidation events of fifty billion and eighty billion happening every now and then. It feels embarrassing to even mention liquidations below five billion. I reviewed some past data, and from the table (Figure 1), it can be seen that before the bull market truly peaked in 2021, it went through a stormy and tumultuous period.

If you can change your perspective and view the market from the short sellers' side, it isn't necessarily that easy to make a profit. As previously discussed, during a bull market phase, the cost-effectiveness of shorting is very low, with a ceiling at 100%, and it is easy to encounter a short squeeze. Everyone can take a closer look; since BTC first broke through 108,000 on December 17, 2024, it has been over 10 months. In past history, have you ever seen a bull market peak that oscillated sideways for over 10 months, giving you countless opportunities to escape at the top?

Combined with on-chain data, the DAT of ETFs and listed companies is the main force of purchasing power in this round of the market. From the perspective of coin-based indicators, the BTC holdings of this type of capital have reached 12.3% of the total supply, while the ETH holdings have reached 10.5%. Therefore, I believe that the main force's chips have not been fully distributed yet. Friends holding these two coins really don't need to worry too much.

To put it more bluntly, whether it's BTC or ETH, institutions are estimated to have contributed over 10% of the total actual purchase volume. This amount of real money is enough to support over 40% of the cryptocurrency market value. What does this indicate? It indicates that retail investors who were involved in MEME, DEFI, and contracts have basically exited the market, making it difficult to influence the larger trend.

The difficulty now lies in the altcoins in your hands. Whether you admit it or not, the bull market for most altcoins has really ended. Therefore, regarding the future market, based on some past experiences, I still have some relatively subjective suggestions that you may cautiously refer to.

First, although the probability is low, we cannot rule out the possibility of a bull turning into a bear. It is necessary to analyze the worst-case scenario based on your own position and see how to deal with this loss amount. Life must go on, and I do not recommend putting more funds into the market to average down. If you haven't made money in 2024-2025, I estimate it will be even more difficult in 2025-2026.

Second, treat a dead horse as a living horse and give up the bad chips in hand to free up space for self-rescue. When the market shows divergence, it might be a good time to buy mainstream coins, or perhaps the best time to buy the dip in mainstream altcoins. After all, holding onto bad chips and waiting for death is not as good as taking a chance to buy mainstream coins with a relatively higher probability of price increase.

Thirdly, interest rate cuts and QE are real benefits that can bring market liquidity. I believe that the market trend mainly follows monetary policy. Currently, we are in a rate-cutting cycle, and monetary policy will also become more accommodative. Additionally, the influence of institutional trading strategies and trends in this round of market movement indicates a slow bull market. The actual situation indeed reflects this, as many mainstream cryptocurrencies have a high probability of doubling in price at the moment. Even if it's only a 50% chance, the returns are certainly better than holding on to a losing position without cutting losses.

Profit-seeking is the nature of every player in the crypto world, and also a weakness. Looking back at history, there are usually two types of people who suffer the most during a bull market: one type is those who lack independent thinking, following trends without understanding; the other type is those who have the courage to gamble but cannot afford to lose when using borrowed funds.

These two types of people often have a mentality that is easy to collapse, and they are often the first to passively exit the market. Historical patterns tell us that the moments of making money are always fleeting. Thinking from a long-term perspective and maintaining a dignified presence to ensure one can last in the market is the fundamental condition for sharing the benefits of cryptocurrency. #巨鲸加仓2.5亿美元BTC