ETH Market Analysis on October 23

#ETH反弹在即？
1. Trend Analysis

· Bearish pattern is solid: The price is below all short- to medium-term EMAs, showing a standard bearish arrangement.
· Deep pullback confirmation: dropped from the high of 4,666.63 to the current 3,817.51, a decline of over 18%
· Key position: The price is fluctuating in the range of 3,706-3,859, testing the support below.
· Unique support: EMA180(3,633.28) remains an important long-term support.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Short selling momentum continues:
· DIF(-125.24) < DEA(-102.34), the MACD histogram is negative (-22.92)
· Although the DIF and DEA are not far apart, they are still in a deep negative value area.
· The downtrend has not yet ended

3. Volume Analysis

· Extremely low volume: The current trading volume of 499 million is far below the 5-day average of 180.01 billion and the 10-day average of 103.62 billion.
· Market implication: Extremely light trading activity, very low market participation.
· Pre-reversal signal: This extreme decrease in volume usually indicates an impending directional choice.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 3,864.23 (EMA5)
· Strong resistance 2: 3,927.76 (EMA10)
· Strong resistance 3: 4,084-4,098 (EMA72-EMA20 area)
· Support Level:
· Key support: 3,706.45 (24-hour low)
· Last line of defense: 3,633.28 (EMA180)

Market Prediction

Most likely scenario (55% probability): Continue to test EMA180 downwards.

1. Reason: Bearish moving average alignment + MACD bearish + Volume extremely shrunk
2. Downward Target:
· First target: 3,706.45 (pre-test low)
· Second target: 3,633.28 (EMA180 strong support)
3. Nature Judgment: If it falls below 3,633, it may open up a deeper decline.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound

1. Condition: Get support around 3,706 to see an oversold rebound.
2. Rebound target: 3,864-3,927 range (EMA5-EMA10 resistance zone)
3. Requirement: Need to increase trading volume in conjunction.

Low probability scenario (15% probability): Bottom formation

1. Condition: Consolidation at the 3,700-3,800 range to build a bottom
2. Feature: Low volume sideways trend, digesting selling pressure
3. Duration: It may take several days.

Trading Advice

For holders of long positions:

· It is advisable to hold cautiously: if the position is not heavy, you can observe the current situation.
· Strict Stop Loss: Set below 3,690
· A rebound to the 3,860-3,900 range may be considered for reducing positions.

For short sellers/watchers:

· You can short with a light position at 3,830-3,850, with a stop loss above 3,870.
· Target levels: 3,710, 3,650
· Wait for a callback to the 3,650-3,630 support area before considering layout for long positions.

Risk Control Focus:

· Key observation points:
· Is the support of 3,706 effective?
· Change in Trading Volume
· 3,864 resistance strength
· Short stop loss: Breakthrough 3,880
· Bullish entry point: 3,650-3,630 (near EMA180)

Risk Warning

1. The extreme shrinkage in trading volume indicates a lack of market confidence, requiring a significant increase in volume to confirm direction.
2. The EMA180 support at 3,633 is a key defense line that needs to be closely monitored.
3. Overall market sentiment is weak, affecting the independent movement of ETH.
4. It is recommended to operate with a very light position, strictly set stop-loss, and control risks.

Summary: ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend, but the extremely shrinking trading volume indicates that a trend reversal is imminent. In the short term, it may continue to test the support levels of 3,706 and 3,633. The strategy should focus on shorting on rallies, with strict risk control, patiently waiting for the opportunity to enter long positions near the strong support at 3,633. The current market needs increased volume to confirm the next direction.