Today, we will once again sell the argument of "bull and bear battle" for everyone to discuss together.

First, let's discuss some opinions in the market. Many people believe that the reason for the bear market is because of
1. The four-year cycle has arrived, and when the time comes, it should drop. Many people are making excuses.
2. Breaking through multiple support levels, on a technical level, including weekly divergence and monthly exhaustion.
3. The US stock market may "peak", leading to a bubble burst.

So the bulls also have their own views.
1. The market hasn't really experienced FOMO at all; compared to the previous rounds of FOMO, it's much weaker.
2. The market easing policy has just begun, and large-scale monetary injection is about to come.
3. The continuous inflow of ETFs, which are held for the long term and will not experience large-scale outflows in the short term.
4. The last one is, "I" still haven't broken even!! Or I haven't earned enough A6 A7 A8, I'm not willing to accept this.

I'm not sure if one of the situations I mentioned above is what you were thinking, but I'd like to share my opinion.

First of all, too many people have talked about this four-year cycle. I think the four-year cycle may still continue to exist, but from the volatility of Bitcoin, it can be seen that it has gradually evolved from being driven by "strong supply shocks" to a cycle dominated by "macroeconomic liquidity + institutional funds + narrative expectations."

So I tend to think that the cycle will gradually "fade", but it will not disappear out of thin air. The halving is still a "collective memory point" for the market retail investors, which can trigger the emotional switch. However, the hard supply shock is diminishing, and prices are more influenced by macro factors and capital.

Other viewpoints actually have their own reasons, but my current perspective is that the market is now a typical "monkey market". The psychological characteristics of people right now are that they are both afraid of missing out and afraid of a pullback. When the market loses a clear direction and neither side can completely convince the other, it will fall into a wide fluctuation.

The market is no longer the market it used to be; more and more institutional investors are gradually bringing the market closer to maturity, abandoning the mindset of "either bull or bear," and taking the initiative into their own hands, following the trend.

In this market, the importance of your own strategy outweighs your predictions.

Manage your positions well, stay flexible and patient. The most important point is to maintain a good mindset. Whether the market ultimately goes "bull" or "bear", you can be in a relatively proactive position.
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