The latest CME data reflects that the Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, with the market expectation probability as high as 99.4%. However, the real focus of investors has shifted to the press conference that Fed Chairman Powell is set to hold at 2:30 AM. People are hoping to gain important clues about the future trajectory of interest rate cuts, adjustments to quantitative tightening policies, and the economic outlook.

Market pricing shows that traders generally expect the easing cycle to continue until early next year, with a 91.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. However, some analysts point out that the truly significant signal is not the rate cut itself, but whether Powell hints at an imminent end to the quantitative tightening policy.

A senior trader in the cryptocurrency field emphasized that if Powell confirms that quantitative tightening will end in the next 1-2 months, its impact could surpass the first rate cut in September of last year. This is because quantitative tightening withdraws $60 billion from the financial system each month, and once it stops, new money supply will flow more smoothly into the stock and cryptocurrency markets. A typical case is when the Fed ended its balance sheet reduction in September 2019, Bitcoin surged from $8,000 to $14,000 within three months.

Currently, the market capitalization of USDT has increased from $175 billion to $183 billion, setting a new historical high. At the same time, the stablecoin supply ratio is approaching a cyclical low, and historical data indicates that after this signal appears, Bitcoin often experiences a strong rebound.

However, if Powell emphasizes the uncertainty of inflation in his speech or suggests a possible pause in rate cuts in December, the market may interpret it as an unexpected hawkish signal, leading to adjustments. In this case, the price of Bitcoin could retreat to $110,000 or even lower.

Overall, although the interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, the content of Powell's speech will have a significant impact on the future direction of the market. Investors need to closely follow the Fed's policy trends and the potential ripple effects it may have on the cryptocurrency market.