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At midnight, when Powell began to speak, traders around the world held their breath and set everything aside.
Every word choice he makes is meticulously analyzed by market participants—looking for subtle hints of hawkish or dovish sentiments, interpreting the policy direction hidden between the lines. At this moment, the financial market is like an athlete at the starting line, fully focused and waiting for the signal.
After the speech, the market reacted quickly and complexly. Stock index futures first surged rapidly, then quickly pulled back. The dollar index fluctuated sharply, while gold prices quietly climbed. Market commentators immediately pointed out the subtle changes in this speech: although inflation is still viewed as the primary threat, the risk of economic downturn was acknowledged for the first time. As someone said: "The Federal Reserve's solid stance is showing its first crack."
Experienced investors have begun to adjust their strategic layouts. There has been substantial buying activity in the bond market, and tech stocks experienced volatility after regular trading hours. Every slight shift in Federal Reserve policy represents a time window for wealth redistribution. Currently, the market is at a critical balance point: on one hand, there are optimistic expectations that inflation may decline, while on the other hand, there are potential risks of economic recession.
It is worth noting that when central banks begin to adjust their policy tone, the real investment opportunities often do not appear in the initial reaction but emerge during the subsequent second wave of market adjustments.