At 2 AM tonight, the Fed's interest rate cut will officially take effect. The 25 basis points have long been digested by the market; the real focus is where the funds will flow after the cut.

In the past year, high interest rates have locked liquidity tightly. Once the interest rate spread loosens, the first to become active will not be the stock market, but the funds themselves. Funds always prefer markets with high volatility and elasticity.
Gold has recently completely lost its strength, indicating that the hedging positions are loosening. A week after last month's interest rate cut, $BTC surged directly, and the direction of funds is now clear: money is flowing into the crypto market.
So in the next two months, there is a chance that Bitcoin will rise to 120,000. But if it doesn't go up this time, don't expect any policy benefits in December, and don't fantasize about continuous interest rate cuts or balance sheet expansions; if Trump can't control it, the Fed definitely won't cooperate. The current strategy can only be to take it one step at a time.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has been adjusting from the high point of 124,400 on August 14 for two months now, essentially still digesting the main upward wave from 74,500. The rebound pattern from 103,500 has not completed yet; rebound does not equal reversal, and this point must be kept in mind. The sell-off yesterday had no significant negative news; essentially, it was a natural market retraction.
Short-term 116,000 is not a strong resistance, the real pressure is at 120,000. Last night, when the 12-hour line touched the upper Bollinger band at 115,800, it was smashed down. After the interest rate cut tonight, the volatility will be very intense, and both bulls and bears can profit.
On the emotional side, this rebound is driven by Asian funds, while US capital has not yet entered. Historically, market trends dominated by Asian trading tend to be short-lived, but this time US capital sentiment is at a low; once it rebounds, the pace may suddenly accelerate. At that time, looking back at now, we will find that this is not a peak, but a starting point.
$ETH is moving more steadily, with the stage low point at 3710 and resistance at 4450. As long as it holds above 3917 in the short term, the deeper the break, the stronger the rebound after the interest rate settles. #美联储如期降息25基点