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Individuals retreat: 5 developments Bitcoin holders should watch

Bitcoin started November weakly. As the price fell to $107,000, individual investors are withdrawing from the market and institutional demand is decreasing. Analysts predict $98,500 as a potential bottom.
Bitcoin is starting November by falling to $107,000. Investors are bracing for further support tests.

Bitcoin's price action is giving bulls a grim sense of déjà vu as weekend gains evaporate and downside liquidity builds.

November is expected to bring seasonally significant BTC price gains, but so far there are no signs of relief.

While hopes for a US-China trade deal are supporting stocks, the crypto market is failing to share in this optimism as concerns about a Fed rate cut return.

Institutional demand has reached a seven-month low compared to newly minted BTC supply.

Retail investors are retreating as data suggests the $110,000 level may not be sustainable due to weak network activity.
Bitcoin investors anticipate a "tough" week.
Bitcoin fell back to $107,000 immediately after the daily close.

The market warned of a rally, showing that the BTC/USD pair has erased all of its weekend gains.

Frankly, this could be one of the toughest trading weeks of the quarter.

This suggests we may be in a sideways range market. Therefore, I should be aware of the possibility of a potential range bottom test.
These lows coincide strongly with the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $101,150, increasing their likelihood as a bottom target. The price retested this area during the flash crash from the all-time high of $126,200 in October.

This is very solid support, so we could see a very aggressive bounce from there.

In the short term, two major liquidity levels formed during the weekend range.

The price broke the lower bound at $108,500. There is still a reasonable cluster around $112,000. Looking more broadly, it makes sense to look at the $105,000-$106,000 and $117,000 levels.
It's important to be careful as downside liquidity could become very attractive.

BTC looks weak and that low-liquidity area is beckoning, but could we see one last push higher before a deeper pullback in the coming days/weeks?

We're waiting for the US to wake up and see how they start the week.
The possibility of a BTC price recovery has collapsed.

While this period is traditionally the best six months of the year for stocks, crypto doesn't appear poised to follow suit.

Bitcoin has already fallen 2 percent in November, marking another disappointment for bulls after its worst October performance since 2018.

Data underscores the severity of the situation. Since 2013, the average November gain has been more than 40 percent.
Prediction markets are highlighting the current low sentiment among crypto investors, with only a 33% chance of BTC/USD ending the month above $120,000, but a 60% chance of $115,000.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the "fear" zone and has yet to reflect Bitcoin's decline to $107,000.

Last week, when this level was revisited, the research platform suggested it was critical for investors' price expectations.

“Bitcoin's drop to $107,000 on Thursday led to a significant increase in sub-$100,000 price predictions,” he wrote, sharing a chart comparing predictions below $100,000 to those above $150,000.

“Markets tend to move against the crowd's expectations, so a relief rally is likely at a time when FUD is currently at its peak.”
Trade war easing and a hawkish Fed clash

Good news is ahead for stocks this week, as optimism about a US-China trade deal outweighs the risk of a rising interest rate conflict.

They rose slightly after tariff reductions and the lifting of restrictions on China's rare earths and automotive chips.

This is the largest de-escalation move in history.

Despite concerns about US military intervention in Venezuela and Nigeria, commerce topped the list for risk-on investors. At the same time, only the crypto market remained under pressure as the new week began.
Bitcoin's deterioration in correlation with stocks has exacerbated the situation. Large tech stocks provide some direction for BTC's price movement.

Bitcoin moves in tandem with tech stocks. This is related to liquidity and risk appetite.

For years, you could predict Bitcoin's direction by watching the Nasdaq. This correlation has recently completely broken down since December 2024.
Due to the ongoing US government shutdown, only private sector employment data will be affected, while inflation data will be significantly limited.

In the background, uncertainty surrounding US economic policy is growing. The Fed is taking an increasingly hawkish stance, and further rate cuts in 2025 are no longer guaranteed.

The probability of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December is 63%.
Institutional demand is declining.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin is back in the spotlight this week as the BTC price underperforms equities and gold.

The data shows three consecutive days of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through October 31st.

These inflows are now causing concern because institutional demand is not keeping pace with the increase in daily BTC supply.

For the first time in seven months, net institutional purchases have fallen below the daily issued supply.

This finding is not good, as it also includes total ETFs.
The last time institutional appetite couldn't keep up with newly issued supply was just before BTC/USD hit its local lows of around $75,000 in early April.

For years, liquidity simply didn't exist. Try selling $100 million worth of Bitcoin in 2015. You'd crash the price. Try selling $1 billion worth in 2019. Same problem. The market couldn't handle it.

But now? ETFs are providing institutional demand. Large corporations are holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Sovereign funds are stepping in. The market has finally matured enough for early investors to exit large positions without causing chaos.
Retail investors are “pulling back”

Bitcoin retail investors have been withdrawing from the market since the price fell nearly 20 percent from its all-time high in October.

According to research, this is clearly evident in the decline in active BTC addresses.

At the beginning of November 2024, active addresses were around 1.18 million, but by October 30, 2025, they had fallen to 872,000, a 26.1 percent decline.

The recent price movements, along with multiple mass liquidations, are directly linked to the “pulling back” of retail investors.

The absence of retail investors limits visible activity on the network and delays the natural end of a market cycle.
Individual investors provide the emotional impetus and liquidity that allows strong hands to profitably close their positions, and without them, cycles would last longer than usual.