On November 6th, Bitcoin started to rebound along with the US stock market, also buoyed by expectations that the government shutdown crisis may ease. Latest data shows that total crypto lending in Q3 surged to $73.6 billion, setting a new record.

📊 The Truth Behind This Rebound

Many believe the rebound is because the US government shutdown is nearing an end (though there’s no concrete news to confirm this). But a more critical factor might be the data from Kalshi—the probability that the Supreme Court will support the former president’s global tariff policy has dropped to 29%. Why is this considered positive news? Because if the court rules that tariffs are illegal, corporate supply chain costs will directly decrease, profit margins will improve, and inflation pressures could ease. For tech companies, manufacturers, and consumer brands, this means paying fewer taxes, smoother supply chains, and lower procurement costs—all of which contribute to more market liquidity.

**Weekly Outlook**

This week’s candlestick shows long lower shadows, indicating some buy-in at the 100,000 level. However, on a larger scale, a clear head-and-shoulders top pattern has emerged. Currently, the rebound is near the neckline of this pattern. The key is whether the right shoulder’s high can be confirmed. The major resistance level to watch is around 108,900.

**Daily Signal**

Yesterday’s daily candle closed with increased volume and a bullish engulfing pattern, forming a piercing line with the previous bearish candle—this is a bullish sign. There’s minor resistance at the head-and-shoulders neckline, combined with resistance from the Vegas channel and a dense volume POC zone. Expect some selling pressure here, but pinpointing the exact resistance level is tricky. It’s advisable to take profits gradually on long positions.

**4-Hour Details**

The Fibonacci 50% retracement level is near 107,700, coinciding with an ascending trendline and the upper Bollinger Band, creating a confluence of resistance. The middle Bollinger Band is exerting intra-day pressure, but given the current V-shaped recovery, a second dip seems unlikely. More probable is a continued upward move. MACD has already formed a bullish crossover, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum, leaning toward a bullish outlook.

**1-Hour Short-Term Strategy**

A head-and-shoulders bottom pattern has formed. Based on a 1:1 measured move, the target could be around 110,000.