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This week mainly focuses on these 3 things:
1. CPI for October to be released on Thursday, November 13
The US government is currently in the longest shutdown in history, but CPI is too important, and the Department of Labor is likely to release it on time.
2. Retail Sales and PPI for October to be released on Friday, November 14
Retail sales reflect consumption, while PPI reflects production costs. Data shows consumption is slowing but not collapsing, and PPI remains moderate.
3. The biggest macro risk – government shutdown
The shutdown started on October 1 and has lasted 35 days. About 750,000 federal employees are unpaid, with key departments operating at minimal capacity. The internal debate in Congress is ongoing, and whether the shutdown ends next week is the focus. The shutdown not only obscures data but also gradually harms the real economy and pushes up interest rates. In the long term, US Treasury risks increase, and rates rise.
In summary, making money mainly depends on the project's narrative and capital rotation.