Here's my take: prediction markets aren't gambling.

Sure, some markets look like pure speculation—sports outcomes being the obvious example. But that's missing the bigger picture.

The real differentiation? Research gives you an actual edge. When you can dig into on-chain data, analyze sentiment flows, or track wallet movements, you're not just betting on luck. You're making informed probabilistic assessments.

That's fundamentally different from rolling dice. It's closer to trading than gambling—skin in the game, yes, but driven by information asymmetry and analytical skill.

The markets where this shines? Governance outcomes, protocol upgrades, ecosystem adoption metrics. Places where deep research translates directly into alpha.