1. Context Review: Stop, Restart, Wait

The U.S. federal government will enter a shutdown starting October 1, 2025, due to the failure to pass the budget.
Currently, the Senate has passed a short-term funding bill to extend government funding until January 30, 2026.
The case is currently being submitted to the House of Representatives for review, and if it passes smoothly and is signed by the President, the government will soon restart.
The specific time for the restart depends on three stages.
The Senate has passed it, which is a key breakthrough.
The House voted to pass the funding bill.
After the president signed the funding bill, federal agencies and employees returned to normal operations.
In short, a restart may be achieved within this week, but there are still uncertainties in the process.
2. Logical Analysis of the Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
Macroeconomic risk sentiment has eased.
During the government shutdown, the market was under pressure, uncertainty increased, and fiscal liquidity was constrained. The end of the shutdown means reduced macro uncertainty, which is expected to boost market confidence in risk assets.
Changes in the US dollar and liquidity environment
The government's restart usually means a relief in budget crises, a flow of funds, and a restoration of government spending, which may affect the trend of the US dollar and fund preferences.
If the US dollar weakens, capital may flow into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies may benefit.
If the US dollar strengthens, it may suppress the cryptocurrency market.
Market Leverage and Capital Flow
The leverage ratio in the cryptocurrency market is high, and macro events trigger rapid inflows and outflows of funds, amplifying volatility. If the government restart brings positive signals, it may trigger a short-term rebound; if the restart is delayed, it could lead to capital outflows or panic sell-offs.
Time window and psychological expectations
The lifting of the suspension is a triggering event. Market participants will price in advance, and if the restart expectations are delayed, the positive effects may be absorbed ahead of time, leading to a rebound followed by a decline. If the restart is quickly implemented, it may create a sudden realization effect, triggering a short-term influx of capital.
3. Operational Recommendations (for Cryptocurrency Trading Systems)
Trigger mechanism: Set "Government Restart Confirmation" as the trigger variable, such as when the House of Representatives passes and the President signs, the signal is established.
Position Control: Maintain a moderate position before signal confirmation, keeping the overall exposure controlled at 10%-20%. After signal confirmation, you can increase your position in mainstream coins.
Coin selection strategy: prioritize mainstream coins while monitoring funding rates and liquidity changes.
Backtesting suggestion: Refer to past events of U.S. government shutdowns and restarts, backtest the performance of crypto assets, including price changes and volatility.
Risk Management: If the restart progress is stalled or repeatedly delayed, it should automatically trigger a reduction of positions or stop-loss strategy.
4. Short-term and Medium-term Outlook
Short-term (1-2 weeks): After the confirmation of the restart signal, market sentiment improves, and cryptocurrency assets may rebound, but there is a risk of a pullback after positive news is priced in.
Medium term (1-3 months): If the government budget passes smoothly and market risk appetite recovers, medium to long-term factors in the crypto market will reassert dominance. Restarting is just the starting point for returning to normal, not a sufficient condition for a bull market.
Warning: If the restart procedures are cumbersome or delayed, it may trigger a market pullback.
5. Conclusion
The government has restarted the process that has been clearly included: the Senate has passed the appropriation bill, the House of Representatives is about to vote, and the President's signature is imminent.
This is an important macro event window for the cryptocurrency market.
If the reboot is successfully implemented, it could become a catalyst for short-term crypto assets; if the process is delayed or obstructed, it may trigger a market pullback.
For users equipped with a quantitative trading system and real-time monitoring capabilities, the key lies in treating "restart confirmation" as a node condition within the quantitative system, along with position management and capital monitoring strategies #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 .