Hello everyone! I am Peter. The recent market is a bit gloomy, so I am seeking a technical breakthrough!

【Technological Innovations in Prediction Markets: What Can OracleX Emerging from GitHub Change?】
In the past couple of days, there has been talk in the community about a white paper, and I found the original text: Elias, to be released on October 31 (coincidentally, this day also marks the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper). The document introduces a new concept called "Proof of Behavior Protocol."
The prediction market has evolved from the Iowa University experiment in 1988 to today, taking 36 years to truly explode in 2024: trading volume surpassing 8 billion, Polymarket valued at 9 billion, and the Trump family entering the market. However, behind the prosperity lies a fatal problem: insufficient liquidity.
Polymarket's market share dropped from 95% to 35%, while Kalshi rose from 5% to 65%. Why? Because Kalshi solved liquidity issues through sports betting (which accounts for 70% of its trading volume) and a partnership with Robinhood, while Polymarket still relies on support from crypto natives.
The solution proposed in the OracleX white paper is to bind the actions of "providing liquidity" and "providing high-quality predictions" together. Users stake tokens to mint stablecoins and participate in predictions, with the yield dynamically adjusted based on prediction accuracy and participation frequency.
Whether this idea can be implemented is one thing, but it reveals the real issue in the field: relying solely on trading fees, the predictive market won't go far.

#预测市场 #Web3 #行业观察 #OracleX