#美股2026展望 Tonight's market data is truly magical. $BTC has drawn two parallel lines with the US stocks - one is curving upwards, and the other is crashing down, vividly playing out a scene of "the sun rises in the east while it rains in the west."

On the US stock market side, the technology sector was already gasping for breath at a high level, and then Home Depot's earnings report doused the market with a bucket of cold water: consumer data disappointing, economic growth slowing. Such signals are poison for the stock market; tech stocks wanting to rebound? No way. The VIX shot up directly, and the panic sentiment is evident on every candlestick.

But just at this moment, the script flipped. Weak economic data instead made the expectation of interest rate cuts become extremely hot. The probability of a rate cut in December jumped directly to 52.6%, soaring 2.2 percentage points within two hours. Once this expectation is ignited, the liquidity narrative immediately comes back to life.

Thus, the market exhibited a textbook-level divergence: the US stock market plummeted due to economic weakness, while BTC soared on expectations of interest rate cuts. The same macro event led to two completely opposite interpretations, both logically valid, but coincidentally occurring at the same time, resulting in a particularly strong visual impact.

This actually hides a deeper signal – recently, BTC fell even more sharply than the US stock market, and that kind of "oversold condition" is undergoing self-correction. The two markets are like a seesaw, searching for a new equilibrium point.

But that being said, a short-term rebound is still just a rebound; don't be too happy too early. If the US stock market really collapses into a big hole, the overall risk appetite will collapse, and BTC cannot be the only one performing solo. After all, when a liquidity crisis comes, no one can escape.

The market is never short of reversals; what is lacking is the vision to understand those reversals. Keeping a close eye on how far this wave of interest rate cuts can go is what should be the main concern right now.